Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #533 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE801
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley...Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 261911Z - 270100Z
SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will pose
at least a localized threat of flash flooding through early this
evening given increasingly high rainfall rate potential.
DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with radar data shows some gradual increase in the coverage
of mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the OH Valley, central Appalachians and the interior of the
central Mid-Atlantic. MLCAPE values have increased to 500 to 1000
J/kg, and the PWs across the region are gradually increasing as
upstream moisture transport from the Mid-South focuses across
broader areas of the OH Valley and eastward into the central
Appalachians. PWs west of the Appalachians have risen to 1.5 to
1.75 inches, with values closer to 1.5 inches over the central
Mid-Atlantic.
Multiple upstream shortwave impulses transiting the OH Valley will
begin to move into the central Appalachians and the interior of
the Mid-Atlantic going through early this evening. There may be
just enough uptick in convective coverage, and the rainfall rates
to drive some localized concerns for flash flooding. The greater
overall threat will tend to be over the OH Valley where the
greater moisture is in place.
Localized rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and some spotty 2
to 3+ inch rainfall amounts going through early this evening are
supported by the latest hires model consensus. A localized urban
flash flooding threat will also be possible given the setup which
would include some areas of northern VA and perhaps near
Washington D.C.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39388204 39348065 39267885 39067700 38127723
37547953 37448042 37138196 36798397 37018495
37438549 37988549 38398562 38958674 39218578
39358395
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #533 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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