Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #476 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY083
AWUS01 KWNH 200701
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-201255-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0476
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Areas affected...eastern TX into LA and southwestern MS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 200658Z - 201255Z
SUMMARY...At least isolated areas of flash flooding are expected
over the next 3-6 hours (through 3Z) from eastern TX into LA and
possibly southwestern MS. Slow-moving and efficient thunderstorms
will produce hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches.
DISCUSSION...0630Z water vapor imagery identified a mid-level
trough axis that extended from the eastern TX/OK border into the
Edwards Plateau. Earlier long loops of visible and infrared
imagery along with radar imagery suggested an MCV or two may be in
the vicinity of with the mid-level trough axis, which may serve as
an added trigger to convective development. One such MCV was
estimated to be approaching I-35 near Austin. The environment
across eastern TX into LA contained 1000 to 2000+ J/kg of
instability along with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches (SPC
mesoanalysis). Inhibition looked to be eroding across northeastern
TX with the recent expansion of slow-moving showers across the
region.
While movement will be slow, some advancement toward the southeast
is forecast with the mid-level trough axis through 12Z along with
the subtle MCV approaching I-35 near Austin possibly aiding
ascent. Roughly 15 to 20 kt of S to SSE low level flow will
maintain low level moisture advection into eastern TX and LA
overnight resulting in further erosion of low level convective
inhibition. Within the low level flow, an axis or axes of low
level convergence may aid the development of nocturnal
thunderstorms. Kinematic profiles support the potential for slow
movement and backbuilding due to the relatively weak steering flow
from the west to southwest and the stronger magnitude of low level
inflow. While the specific locations of the best forcing are not
clear over the next 3-6 hours, with the continued erosion of CIN
within a very moist environment containing several sources of
ascent, there is high likelihood for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding through 13Z with hourly rainfall possibly exceeding
3 inches.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 33449484 33329325 33039158 32729029 32179004
31539040 31129123 30589235 30169364 30079523
30269612 30829660 31369677 31979659 32399634
32659603 33009579
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #476 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY---------------
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