PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 5:25 PM CDT161
FXUS63 KPAH 112225
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
525 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms accompany a cold frontal passage late this
evening through the night, primarily exiting our area by
Friday morning. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but a
few stronger storms could produce pockets of damaging winds
along with brief heavy rainfall.
- Soupy conditions return Saturday afternoon and may linger into
Sunday. Another round of showers and storms appears likely
Saturday into Saturday night, and this may linger into at
least the first half of Sunday. A few stronger storms are
possible which includes the threat for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding.
- Early next week is trending cooler and less humid. There is a
70-90% chance at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on
Monday and Tuesday! This appears short-lived though as higher
humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Shortwave troughing across the northern plains early this
afternoon is expected to quickly eject northeast into the Great
Lakes tonight. A cold front will extend into the central plains
making its way through the area during the overnight hours. A
line of showers/storms will develop along the front as it moves
southeast. Modest instability will remain in place despite
nocturnal cooling with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg.
Shear will be lacking and decreasing further south and east as
the line pushes in. The current thinking is that the line
overall will be weakening as it pushes through but a few storms
could intensify to severe levels with a damaging wind threat.
Localized flooding can't be ruled out but the line should be
moving quick enough to limit the flood risk.
Showers and storms exit the area Friday with high pressure
building in providing northeast winds and much lower humidity.
Dewpoints are expected to fall into the 50s across portions of
the region. Zonal flow develops aloft over the weekend with a
weak boundary draped across the Midsouth. As this boundary lifts
north a weak shortwave will traverse the region aiding in
showers and storm development late Saturday into early Sunday.
Depending on instability and shear trends, some strong storms
can't be ruled out. High PW's will be in place for a flash
flooding threat as well. Early next week features drier and
cooler temperatures as a result of high pressure to the north.
LREF continue to paint 70-90% chances of dewpoints below 60
degrees Monday into Tuesday. A system to the south could offer
low end rain chances to southern portions of the area but at
this time the forecast is dry into midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
A cold front's approach and passage late tonight will bring
lowering bases with restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS with SHRA/TSRA.
Upon its immediate passage, expect a wind shift to northwest,
then becoming northerly and diminishing thereafter. Bases will
then scatter and eventually clear heading into the planning
phase hours of the forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-081-
085.
MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100.
IN...None.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ007>009-
011-012.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 5:25 PM CDT---------------
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