PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 11:28 AM CST351
FXUS63 KPAH 121728
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1128 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow should come to an end by daybreak across southwest
Indiana.
- Significantly colder air will spread across the region this weekend
with the coldest temperatures Saturday night into Sunday.
Dangerously cold wind chill values (below 0) and impactful air
temperatures are likely.
- A warming trend commences next week, with highs rising back
above normal by Wednesday possibly pushing back into the 60s
late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Alberta Clipper system continues to produce light snow over the
northeastern quarter of the CWA. Reports are in the 1 to 2 inch
range in the winter weather advisory although we may sneak a few
slightly higher reports in southwest Indiana where a brighter
band of precip has been working for the last couple of hours.
Frontogenetic forcing is weakening and the returns are
diminishing but it will probably take a couple more hours for
the snowfall to stop entirely and will leave the Winter Weather
Advisory in place for a little bit longer. The surface low at
about 1009mb currently over south central MO transits eastward
today and shifts our winds back from the north which should keep
things pretty chilly today and tonight with a little bit of
cloud cover draped behind it.
Amplifying flow over the western half of the CONUS sends a very
strong cold front towards the region Saturday. The airmass
coming along with this 1038-1042 mb high is sitting over western
Canada this morning with -30/-40 degF temps and -40/-50 degF
dewpoints. The very cold and dense airmass is already trending
faster in model guidance, which is not unexpected. Lowered Max
temps a little Saturday as winds shift around as early as midday
before the coldest airmass slams into the region in the
afternoon. With this type of airmass transition I expect a brief
bout (an hour or two) of 20-25+ mph gusts and sharply dropping
temperatures. Model consensus has the southern half of the area
about 13 to 15 and the northern half about 3 to 8 air
temperature by Sunday morning purely from cold-advection
processes. That seems a little cold without any radiative
component but its what has been shown for the last several days.
This coupled with the persistent winds overnight puts us below
zero basically everywhere wind chill wise and closer to -10
along the Interstate 64 corridor. A cold weather advisory will
likely be needed later today or tonight for most, or all of the
CWA. Light snow is modeled along the leading edge of the front
but there isn't a great deal of Fgen or jet level ascent and the
front moves so fast any lift from that looks very short-lived.
We have very light accumulations in the northeastern most
counties.
Sunday looks very cold with winds staying up to 5-10 mph with
max wind chills struggling to break 10 degrees. Sunday night the
1040mb high parks directly overhead. Forecast lows are basically
0 to 10 right now but it has the look of one of those nights
where we see late overnight lows tanking out which would put
things below zero and flirting with daily record lows.
All that mess finally breaks up the persistent troughing over
the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay with a much more zonal pattern taking
shape. This leads to surface high pressure forming up over the
southeastern US and giving us warmer southwesterly winds. Max
temps should easily break back into the 50s by midweek and
probably into the 60s later in the week with small rain and
shower chances starting to spark up amid the persistent
southwesterly moisture return flow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
An MVFR cloud deck is slowly advancing southeastward but current
satellite shows the southeast edges eroding and scattering out.
This means it could take a little longer for the MVFR deck to
reach PAH, EVV, and OWB. This also means the deck may retreat
briefly from CGI. Once this deck moves in later this evening, it
should stay fairly solid through tomorrow. Winds will remain
generally northerly and light.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 11:28 AM CST---------------
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