MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 12:07 PM CST ...New AVIATION...325
FXUS64 KMOB 011807
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1207 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Low end severe weather threat developing across coastal
portions of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle late
tonight through early Tuesday morning.
- Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft
over the open Gulf waters mainly from late tonight into
Tuesday.
- A high rip current risk is in effect for the Northwest Florida
Panhandle beaches today and for all coastal beaches of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle tonight into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
A positively tilted upper trof extending from the 4 Corners region
to the northern Plains takes on a meridional orientation before
progressing across the eastern states late Monday night into
Tuesday evening. An associated surface low is anticipated to
develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then move across the
western Florida panhandle Tuesday night (between 03-09Z) before
continuing well away from the area. The trajectory of the surface
low indicated by the latest guidance tempers the potential for any
meaningful instability to be able to lift into the western
Florida panhandle. Will continue to monitor, but at this point
the potential for strong storms looks low. Have gone with chance
to likely pops for Monday, categorical pops for Monday night, then
slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday morning. Dry conditions
follow for Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday.
Another positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves from the
northern Plains to the 4 Corners region on Wednesday. The upper
trof splits with much of the upper trof ejecting off across the
northeastern states Wednesday night into Thursday night. The
remainder of the upper trof is joined by a Canadian system to form
an upper trof extending from the central states into the Baja
area by Thursday night. There's uncertainty with how quickly this
upper trof advances eastward and also the potential for the upper
trof to weaken substantially. It appears that another surface low
looks to take a trajectory similar to what transpired earlier in
the week and move across the forecast area roughly on Friday.
There is a great deal of uncertainty with how this plays out and
will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with chance to
likely pops for Thursday with likely to categorical pops for
Friday. Mainly chance pops follow for Saturday, then Sunday looks
to be mainly dry except for small pops near the coast.
Highs will be near seasonable values on Monday, and Friday through
Sunday, and about 5-10 degrees below seasonable values for
Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows trend to well below
seasonable values by Tuesday night to range from the mid/upper 20s
well inland to the lower/mid 30s at the coast. Lows trend to a bit
above seasonable values by Thursday night with near seasonable
values expected for Saturday night. A moderate risk is expected
today for the Alabama beaches with a high risk for the western
Florida panhandle beaches. A high risk of rip currents follows for
all beach areas for Monday night into Tuesday, then a moderate
risk is expected Tuesday night. A low rip current risk continues
for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk is expected for
Friday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Ceilings (cigs) have lifted to low end MVFR across much of
southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama, including at KMOB
and KJKA. The exception is at KBFM where IFR cigs will likely
persist through the afternoon. Further east across the western
Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama, to include KPNS, VFR
ceilings and visibilities have returned and will persist through
late afternoon.
Deeper moisture will overspread the area starting at the coast and
spreading inland along with an increase low level ascent by late
afternoon to the north of a slow moving warm front over the
northern Gulf. This will bring scattered to potentially numerous
showers along with a drop in ceilings back to IFR west and low end
MVFR east of Mobile Bay. By this evening, a continued lowering of
ceilings areawide to IFR and potentially LIFR is expected along
with widespread light to moderate rain and patchy fog.
A warm front will attempt to lift onshore across the coastal
counties of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle towards
midnight. If this can occur which there still remains some
uncertainty, then winds would veer southeasterly and increase
along with the potential for a few thunderstorms which could reach
severe limits with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. This is
a low confidence forecast and we will continue to monitor this
potential for late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A cold
front advances east from west to east during the early morning
hours of Tuesday with a continuation or return of IFR cigs and
stronger northwest winds between 10-15 knots with higher gusts up
to 20 knots possible. /JLH
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds gradually
become southeasterly by Monday evening, then switch to the
northwest Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front
moves through. Will mention Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
overnight into early Monday morning for the open Gulf waters,
which may need to be extended for the 20-60 nm portion through
Monday afternoon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the open
Gulf waters from 9 pm Monday evening into 3 pm Tuesday afternoon.
Timing for the Small Craft Advisory may need to be refined on
subsequent shifts depending on how quickly the flow
increases/subsides. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday night
then becomes more easterly by Thursday. An onshore flow develops
Thursday night then switches to the northwest on Friday as another
cold front moves through. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 47 57 31 58 / 100 20 0 0
Pensacola 54 62 36 57 / 90 20 0 0
Destin 57 66 38 59 / 90 40 0 0
Evergreen 46 57 28 59 / 100 20 0 0
Waynesboro 38 49 26 56 / 100 20 0 0
Camden 39 51 26 54 / 100 20 0 0
Crestview 51 63 30 59 / 100 30 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Tuesday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 12:07 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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