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832 FXUS64 KLIX 191738AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1138 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025- Widespread dense fog likely again during the early morning hours Thursday morning. - A weak cold front will bring a chance for rain Thursday night and Friday. &&.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025Upper ridge extended from the Gulf northward through the Mississippi River Valley this morning. An upper trough extended from British Columbia to southern California. At the surface, high pressure wascentered over southern Georgia with a stationary boundary near Interstate 40.The upper trough will move into the southern and central Plains by Friday, but the main forcing will be mainly to the north and west of our area. While the center of the high pressure will shift offshore to the east, it will still exert enough influence over the area to keep any significant precipitation amounts north and west of the area Thursday night. While PoPs are in the 40-50 range for Thursday night, rain amounts might not be much more than 0.10-0.25 inch at best in areas it does rain. Fog will continue to be an issue for at least one more night across much of the area. The main question is at what point will there be enough pressure gradient or warm enough temperatures to preclude dense fog. If there is an area where that is the case, it would be areas west of Interstate 55. Will go with a pre-emmptive Dense Fog Advisory again tonight, but confidence near the Louisiana coastand Atchafalaya River Basin isn't as strong, and didn't includethose areas for now. Warmer overnight lows and stronger wind speeds, as well as possible precipitation, should preclude dense fog development tomorrow night. Highs Thursday again upper 70s to mid 80s, which will put some areas very close to record levels. Overnight lows will be in the 60s tonight, and pushing 70 tomorrow night. &&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025The frontal boundary to our north will not make it into the area Friday, but nearby shortwave energy is expected to provide enoughlift for at least scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the daytime hours. Once again, rainfall amounts may not amount to much more than 0.25 inch. Rain chances can't be totally precluded over the weekend, but warm weather will remain in place. The next precipitation threat will be with a southern stream shortwave early next week. The operational ECMWF has been slower than the operational GFS for the last several runs by about 12 hours. The NBM numbers are a decent compromise, and once again, this doesn't appear to be a drought breaking precipitation event. May be an actual frontal passage with this one around Tuesday night or so, but medium range guidance has teases us before. Any significantly cool air doesn't look likely prior to after Thanksgiving, and that might only be for about 48 hours or so. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025May be some MVFR ceilings this afternoon with SCT-BKN cumulus withbases just below FL030. Those clouds should dissipate towardsunset. IFR or lower conditions likely at most or all terminalsafter 06z, with conditions below field minima not out of thequestion at most. As has been the case the last couple mornings,improvement to MVFR or greater probably won't occur until 15z-16z.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025Surface high pressure will generally remain centered east of the local area through Thursday. One more night/early morning with fogdevelopment expected over portions or most of the tidal lakes andsounds. Considering the areal coverage we had this morning, and nochange in the airmass, have issued a pre-emptive Marine Dense FogAdvisory for the protected waters after midnight through 16zThursday. By Friday, a surface low will move into the Mid Mississippi Valley with a trailing cold front moving near the arealate Friday and Saturday. Slightly stronger onshore winds will occur in response to the surface low and approaching front for late Thursday and Friday. May need a short period of SmallCraft Exercise Caution headlines for the outer waters, but do notexpect conditions to justify Small Craft Advisories through the weekend.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 59 78 63 79 / 0 0 40 80 BTR 62 80 65 83 / 0 0 40 70 ASD 58 77 62 78 / 0 0 20 70 MSY 63 80 68 82 / 0 0 30 60 GPT 61 75 63 77 / 0 0 10 50 PQL 57 77 60 79 / 0 0 10 40 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for LAZ036-037-039-048-057-058-060-064-070-071-076>087-089.GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538.MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ069>071-077-083>088.GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RW
