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620 FXUS64 KLIX 150457AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1057 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025- Above normal temperatures expected through the next seven days. - This morning and tonight some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. Super fog may be possible near ongoing marsh fires causing visibilities to decrease to near zero. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025The synoptic pattern illustrates a continued ridge centered over the western Gulf and Central US. The ridge will promote above average temperatures across the CWFA. Eventually, this pattern will begin to transition going into Sunday. The ridge flattens allowing for a more zonal flow to take shape over the region. Surface high pressure remains in control with a subtle return flow still positioned over the region. Although subtle, it is enough to keep a steady flow of low level moisture into the region. With the subsidence in the upper levels, the column will be mostly dry with mostly clear skies. With the very lackluster surface flow, and clear skies...and the increase in low level moisture, patchy to areas of dense radiation fog will be possible. Another signal is in the crossover temperatures across the region. Fog will be possible both this morning and perhaps Sunday morning before the low level flow increases. Where we have ongoing marsh fires, super fog will be likely again this morning. Continued the dense fog advisory through the morning for the entire CWFA. (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025The upper flow will remain zonal to start the new workweek. Thiswill continue to promote above average temperatures with afternoonhighs in the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s west of I55. At thesurface the high pressure finally starts to spread east a bitallowing for pressure gradient to tighten a bit increasing the lowlevel flow. This will begin to limit overnight fogconcerns...although low stratus will still be possible during theovernight and morning hours. As the flow increases Tuesday andinto Wednesday, low level moisture quality will continue toimprove. With the stronger return flow and more low levelmoisture, globals do have a very weak QPF signal over the openwaters and immediate coast. Cannot rule out a rogue streamershower or two Wednesday and Thursday. Going into the end of the week, another H5 ridge develops over theGulf. This will place our region in an active southwesterly flowaloft. Surface flow continues to increase and becomes moderateover the region. Upstream, a broad scale trough resides over theFour Corners. Globals have come into slightly better agreement ontiming and strength of the storm system moving from the DesertSouthwest to the Great Lakes Region. By Friday the ridge over theGulf begins to flatten allowing the front to move through the region into the start of the weekend. The overall synoptic pattern supports the risk of strong to severe storms somewhere over the lower MS River Valley or Midsouth as a negatively tilted trough spreads north and east. However, it is too soon to know what specific impacts we will have locally. At this juncture, it actually appears the better jet dynamics and support will be just to our north and west, but with plenty of shear and at least modest instability around a conditional threat could exist depending on the evolution of this system. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025VFR conditions into the overnight hours will give way to IFR?LIFRfor most terminals as widespread dense fog develops across the region early this morning. The fog will quickly mix out by 14-15z leadingto VFR VIS/CIGs through the remainder of the cycle. Light southerly winds will also continue with most locations seeing winds less than 10kts through the period. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025Surface high pressure will generally remain centered over the Southeast US through the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the start of next week. (Frye)&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 76 53 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 79 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 76 52 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 78 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 76 54 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 77 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.GM...None.MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
