MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 5:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...879
FXUS64 KMOB 172342
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
542 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
until the rain arrives.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Warm and dry conditions prevail through much of the week as a
zonal upper level flow prevails. At the sfc, high pressure will
remain in control with southeasterly to southerly flow bringing
increased moisture to the area. Currently, a warm front is draped
from northwest to southeast across the area separating a warmer
and more moist airmass across southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwest Alabama from the a cooler and much drier airmass to the
northeast. This boundary will lift northward on Tuesday as
southerly flow returns to the area. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the period, likely flirting with a few record
highs by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the area. Lows
will also increase through the period as moisture returns to the
area. Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday as an upper
trough ejects across the plains and weakens as it moves eastward.
While the main dynamics pass well to the north, enough low level
moisture combined with the approaching trough will leads to
isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Dry
and warm conditions return on Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds
across the area. Overnight patchy fog will continue to be an issue
as moisture levels increase.
Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. /13
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Warm and dry conditions prevail through much of the week as a
zonal upper level flow prevails. At the sfc, high pressure will
remain in control with southeasterly to southerly flow bringing
increased moisture to the area. Currently, a warm front is draped
from northwest to southeast across the area separating a warmer
and more moist airmass across southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwest Alabama from the a cooler and much drier airmass to the
northeast. This boundary will lift northward on Tuesday as
southerly flow returns to the area. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the period, likely flirting with a few record
highs by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the area. Lows
will also increase through the period as moisture returns to the
area. Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday as an upper
trough ejects across the plains and weakens as it moves eastward.
While the main dynamics pass well to the north, enough low level
moisture combined with the approaching trough will leads to
isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Dry
and warm conditions return on Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds
across the area. Overnight patchy fog will continue to be an issue
as moisture levels increase.
Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. /13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the region, but we are
expecting patchy to areas of fog development across SE Mississippi
and Coastal Alabama after midnight until 18/15z. Localized VSBY
and GIGs could lower to LIFR to IFR conditions by late tonight
across these areas, including the MOB and BFM terminals. Light and
variable winds will prevail. /22
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Easterly flow today will become southeasterly Tuesday into
Wednesday. A moderate southerly flow develops on Friday ahead of
an approaching front. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 59 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 60 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 60 75 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 49 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 55 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 50 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 49 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 5:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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