MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 6:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...892
FXUS64 KMOB 160038
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
- Patchy fog, possibly dense at times, is possible late tonight
into Sunday morning south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor.
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
The dry forecast pattern will persist through Thursday afternoon
as a dry northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal through early
next week, followed by upper ridging building over the region
Tuesday afternoon through midweek. An ejecting upper low pressure
area over southern California on Tuesday evolves into an upper
trough over the southern Rockies midweek, with the trough then
lifting northeastward over the central and southern Great Plains
Thursday afternoon into Friday. While there remains some slight
timing and placement differences between the GFS and ECMWF (with
the GFS being about 12 hours faster) the overarching theme here is
that we are only expecting a glancing blow with the base of the
trough passing over central Mississippi and northern Alabama. We
are still not making any adjustments to the National Blend of
Models (NBM) precipitation chances at this time, and we expect a
scattered showers and storms to move across the forecast area
Thursday night and Friday. Although not likely, there could be a
strong storm or two northwest of I-65 Friday afternoon due to
SFC-1km Cape values in the 300-500 J/kg range, coinciding with
SRF-1km Helicity values in the 100 to 150 m2/s2 range. These
values may increase, so we will need to monitor. There should be
some patchy fog, possibly dense at times, late tonight into
Sunday morning south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor that we will
continue to monitor.
Both high and low temperatures will continue to trend higher
through Thursday of next week, with highs ranging from 75 to 80
degrees Sunday and Monday, with inland areas seeing some lower to
middle 80s creeping in Tuesday through midweek. Lows will range
from 53 to 57 degrees inland tonight and Sunday night, and from
57 to 62 degrees closer to the coast. Lows will be well above
normal through the remainder of next week, and could be as high as
16 to 21 degrees above normal Thursday night (ranging from 60 to
65 degrees) due to more established southerly wind flow ahead of
the next chance for showers and storms.
Beach Forecast - The rip current MOS probabilities continue to
indicate that the risk may briefly increase to MODERATE levels
along the Destin area beaches Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, the rip
current risk remains LOW through mid week. The probabilities
quickly increase Thursday to a MODERATE risk for all beaches, and
possibly to a HIGH risk Thursday night into Friday. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
VFR conditions will persist until after midnight when low ceilings
and fog likely develop south of highway 84. Visibilities and
ceilings will likely drop to LIFR to IFR through the early morning
hours before lifting shortly after sunrise. With winds around 5
knots out of the west-southwest, fog may struggle to develop with
mostly low ceilings being the issue; however, if winds relax fog
to VLIFR could be possible. Winds will turn westerly tomorrow with
VFR conditions returning by midday. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Small craft operators may need to exercise caution on Thursday
due to a moderate southeasterly wind flow along with building
seas. Until then, light southerly winds will shift southwesterly
this evening, followed by a light to occasionally moderate
westerly flow late tonight through Sunday. A light offshore flow
will briefly set up after midnight Sunday night before turning
easterly by noon on Monday. A light southeasterly flow will then
occur Monday afternoon through midweek, increasing to moderate on
Thursday. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into Sunday along
the immediate coast. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 56 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 61 76 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 61 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 53 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 54 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 54 78 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 53 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 6:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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