IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 7:09 PM EST582
FXUS63 KIWX 180009
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
709 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Rain expected tonight into Tuesday, mixing with or changing
over to all snow Tuesday morning for areas mainly north of US
30. Areas north of US 6, especially along and east of I 69,
could see minor snow accumulations of around 1 inch or less.
Travel with caution for the Tuesday morning commute as there
could be slick slush or snow covered roads. Rain showers are
likely in the afternoon as temps rise into the mid-upper 30s
and low 40s.
-Wednesday will be dry with highs in the 40s. There is a 30-65
percent chance of rain showers Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
A quick moving system will move from the Midwest into the Great
Lakes region tonight into Tuesday. Initially starting as mainly
rain showers a frontogenesis band associated with the system
will allow a quick change over from rain showers to a rain/snow
mix and ultimately all snow for areas north of US-30 with even
some minor accumulations, 1 inch or less, mainly north of US-6
along and east of I-69. For our far northeast parts of the CWA
there is a low chance of some freezing rain on the onset but
with ground temperatures still fairly warm and any freezing rain
occurrence being very brief did opt to leave out of the
forecast grids but did want to mention here as there is a
chance.
A zonal flow aloft on Wednesday and Thursday will allow for
some slight synoptic warming with highs by Thursday getting into
the 50s across the area. By Friday another system this time
slightly warmer than tonights system originating from the Texas
Panhandle will bring another chance of rainfall beginning
Thursday night through Saturday. Looking to see a little bit
more rainfall with this system as being centered further south
will have access to a bit more moisture to work with. Highs
Friday through Sunday will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Fairly close to seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Overall, not much change in forecast thinking with the 00Z TAFs.
A low level moisture gradient across the western Great Lakes
will continue to shift eastward this evening in advance of an
upper low moving across the Central Plains. Radar data indicates
some weak elevated returns across southern Lake Michigan at the
leading edge of this theta-e gradient, but dry low levels
initially will take some time to saturate before measurable
precip becomes an issue. Strongest low level moisture
transport/isentropic lift should not arrive until after 06Z. It
still appears as though terminals should have mainly liquid
precip type with better chance of rain/snow/sleet mix across
extreme NE IN/south central Lower MI. Trend to MVFR cigs is
expected after daybreak Tuesday, with cigs likely dropping below
2k feet mid/late morning. The potential does exist for some IFR
cigs late morning/early afternoon period, but confidence is too
low for inclusion. Have carried rain as prevailing weather type
late tonight through Tuesday morning, but additional scattered
showers are possible during Tuesday afternoon as cold core
upper low associated with upper trough tracks across the area
with a pocket of elevated instability.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 7:09 PM EST---------------
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