IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 1:53 PM EDT863
FXUS63 KIWX 301753
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
153 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler today and tonight with few clouds. Highs today near 70
with lows tonight near 50.
- Sunny and seasonably cool Monday with highs near 75.
- Warm and humid with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Showers and storms had ended over the area earlier. The storms
and had moved southeast as drier air was spreading into the
forecast area causing the atmosphere to rapidly stabilize.
Earlier (00Z) CAPE values were over northern Indiana were 2500
to 4200 J/Kg per SPC mesoanalysis, but had fallen to between
1500 and 2000 J/Kg. RAP model data eliminates CAPEs/instability
by 10Z/6 AM EDT, so given these ongoing trends and dissipation
of remaining storms over the forecast area, storm redevelopment
is not expected.
A cool airmass spreading over the area will bring chilly
weather tonight with temperatures falling to around 50 degrees.
Warmer and humid conditions will return Wednesday through
Friday accompanied by several chances for showers and storms.
The airmass spreading back over the area later this week will be
similar to the one over the area yesterday with high precipitable
water values. GFS BUFKIT Soundings initially favor more of a
tall & thin type of environment with CAPEs (instability <1000 J)
supporting locally heavy rainfall. However, ahead of the front
Friday, the atmosphere is more likely to be somewhat more
conducive for severe storms with greater instability.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Outside of a some diurnal cumulus clouds which should dissipate
shortly after sunset and breezy conditions with gusts up to
around 20 kts with northwesterly flow off of Lake Michigan that
will also trend lower into the overnight period, VFR conditions
are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 1:53 PM EDT---------------
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