JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 2:50 PM EST449
FXUS63 KJKL 151950
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
250 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be breezy and mild ahead of a cold front this afternoon.
Gusts up to 30 mph from the southwest this afternoon, mainly
for locations west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass Region.
- Look for a band of scattered to numerous showers to cross the
area with cold frontal passage tonight. A thunderstorm is
possible in the east.
- Cooler and much drier air arrives for Sunday and Monday.
- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
starting late Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure parked off to the
southeast toward Florida. There is a low pressure pushing across the
Great Lakes and the attendant cold front is stretching southwest
into parts of the Midwest. This is leaving the area in a
tightened pressure gradient and therefore some gusty winds mainly
in the 25-30 mph range this afternoon. This as a increased 850mb
jet pushes across part of the Ohio Valley. The limiting mixing
potential has mostly be a result of the increased low level cloud
cover across much of eastern Kentucky.
There is good agreement in the guidance that the previously
mentioned cold front will push into and across the Ohio Valley
later tonight into Sunday morning. There is enough lift and
convergence with this synoptic feature to ignite a few rain
showers and even a rumble of thunder. There will also be some mid-
level forcing help, as a notable wave will ride through the flow
in conjunction with the surface feature. Given this leaned toward
some of the short term guidance for PoPs and this will give way to
a 50-90 percent chance of rain across the CWA tonight. These
could be gusty showers, but then also think there could be some
decent winds in the higher terrain. Given this leaned toward the
90th percentile for winds in our highest terrain near the Virginia
border. Overall QPE amounts will be light, with most locations
seeing less than a tenth of inch of total QPE. The NBM shows
around a 20 percent chance of seeing a 0.10 of an inch in Somerset
to around 70 percent in Pikeville for reference of PoPs and
amounts.
Sunday, There is good agreement on high pressure nosing in from the
northwest across the Upper Plains in the wake of the cold front.
This will usher in drier and cooler weather for Sunday, with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. Which is closer to normal
for this time of year across eastern Kentucky. Then Sunday night,
we become more entrenched with the surface high starting to crest
across the Lower Ohio Valley. The afternoon dewpoints drop into
the low to mid 20s on Sunday. This dry air and calm conditions
will lead to notable ridge/valley splits across eastern Kentucky.
This as valleys will see lows in the upper 20 to lower 30s and
lower 30s on the ridges. Given this leaned toward the 5th
percentile of the NBM and colder to the COOP MOS for lows to
better match what will be seen at some of the colder mesonet
locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add in more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a
couple of the nights later in the upcoming week. Also, spent some
extra effort timing the clouds and hourly PoPs or the next system
arriving on Tuesday morning allowing for non-diurnal warming and
moistening towards dawn - further limiting the wintry mix
potential as the next bout of pcpn moves into this part of the
state from the west.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The long term forecast period continues to look active across
Eastern Kentucky, with multiple boundary passages and repeated
chances for widespread rainfall. Confidence in sensible weather
specifics remains higher for the earlier portions of the period than
it is towards the middle/end of next week. There remains a great
deal of model spread for Tuesday and beyond, especially when it
comes to the amplitude of the parent synoptic features responsible
for the aforementioned active weather. The latest runs of the
currently-available deterministic forecast guidance have, however,
come closer to a consensus regarding the timing of these mid/upper
level synoptics. This timing trend yields increasing confidence that
all of the precipitation that falls next week will come in the form
of rain. Thunder chances remain uncertain, especially given the
lingering 10 to 15 degrees difference between the 25th and 75th
quartiles of MaxT/MinT NBM guidance for Tuesday and beyond. If the
trend towards a consensus continues, expect forecast confidence to
improve in the coming days. For now though, the baseline NBM data
was maintained for the majority of the long term forecast grids.
The period opens on Sunday morning within a post-frontal cold air
advection regime. A few light rain showers could linger in
Southeastern Kentucky before noon, especially in the higher terrain
along the Virginia state line, where northwesterly low-level flow
could yield marginal orographic lift. By Sunday afternoon, the
persistent advection of a cooler and drier airmass throughout the
atmospheric column will lead to clearing skies. Despite the sunnier
conditions, high temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday (mid 50s to near 60) than they were on Saturday.
Gusty winds in the 20-25mph range will keep apparent temperatures in
the 50s for much of the daytime hours on Sunday. After the sun sets,
conditions appear favorable for efficient radiational cooling,
especially in sheltered and shaded valley locales. Ridgetops should
remain above the freezing mark, but the typical cold spots can
expect to wake up to low temperatures near/just below 30 degrees.
On Monday, ridging looks to build into the forecast area, albeit
briefly. A post-frontal surface high will quickly pass through the
region and gradually shift lighter surface winds to a more easterly
orientation by Monday night. Aloft, both the broad troughing over
the NE CONUS and the midlevel ridging over the Mississippi River
Valley will propagate eastward. The former will facilitate one more
day of dry/cool air advection into the column, and the daytime hours
on Monday look seasonably cool and dry. Expect highs in the 50s
under mostly sunny skies. By Monday night, the flow aloft becomes
more westerly, setting up a regime of quasi-zonal flow with multiple
shortwave disturbances on deck upstream.
The first of these shortwave disturbances is forecast to arrive on
Tuesday morning. At the surface, it will be preceded by a warm front
moving into the Commonwealth late on Monday night. The approach of
this boundary is forecast to yield increasing cloud cover and a non-
diurnal temperature curve on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Monday night's lows are likely to occur around midnight, and will
likely be colder in northeastern portions of the forecast area.
Clouds will reach this area last, allowing for relatively-greater
amounts of radiational cooling after sunset in shaded valleys and
hollows. However, the likelihood of sub-freezing temperatures in
these locales has decreased in accordance with the trend towards
quicker cloud cover. Widespread, regular rain chances spread over
the forecast area on Tuesday morning as the impulse approaches
aloft. Mostly cloudy skies will keep instability at bay and limit
the amount of diurnal warming. Some guidance shows a narrow tongue
of weak instability closer to the Tennessee state line on Tuesday
afternoon, but thunder was left out of the grids in this forecast
issuance, as the currently available model soundings generally look
unsupportive.
The boundary is then expected to stall out in the vicinity of the
forecast area as it loses its dynamic support aloft. Models disagree
on just how far north that boundary will get, leading to significant
model spread. Skies will likely remain cloudy on Wednesday, but
midlevel height rises point towards slightly warmer temperatures and
lesser rain chances. Quasi-zonal flow continues into Thursday,
keeping the sensible weather forecast relatively stagnant. A second,
more subtle shortwave impulse moving through the flow on Thursday
afternoon could nudge the boundary back to the north as a warm front
and bolster rain chances, but the bigger story in this time frame
will be the much deeper troughing emerging on the leeward side of
the Rocky Mountains. As that system propagates east and becomes
negatively tilted over the Plains on Friday, a regime of deeper
southwesterly flow is forecast to set up into Ohio River Valley.
Instability remains uncertain, as does the amplitude of that trough
once it reaches the Midwest on Friday evening. However, pattern
recognition suggests that this late-week system will need to be
watched closely for deeper moisture return, and rain chances remain
in the forecast through the end of the period as a result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR skies are the story this afternoon, but some Cigs have been on
the line at around 32 kft. There will be some clearing at times
through the afternoon, and this could be periods where we see best
mixing. A cold front arrives tonight and this will usher in lower
Cigs in the MVFR or lower range at times with heavier showers
and/or any weak thunderstorms we see. Some of these showers and/or
thunderstorms could mix down some gustier winds at times, but
these should be brief higher gusts. We have seen the increased
gust through the morning and southwesterly winds sustained around
10 to 15 knots with gusts upwards of 25 knots will continue
through the afternoon for most TAF sites. After this winds will
swing around to the west and northwest at 5 to 10 knots, with
gusts relaxing.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 2:50 PM EST---------------
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