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836 FXUS64 KLIX 311944AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA244 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 - Chilly morning starting the day today with 40's areawide to mid 50's for the Southshore. Some low 40's for traditionally cooler areas across southern MS, interior coastal SE MS and Pearl River/Pascagoula basins. - Next system approaches the area late Saturday into early Sunday, with generally light rain chances along the SE LA coast and adjacent marine areas. No impacts expected. - Big story next week is a steady warming trend, reaching the 80's for a few locations by the middle to later part of the week. &&.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Hello all you ghouls, ghosts, and goblins it looks like the witches, wizards, and warlocks were able to conjure up an absoluteTREAT of a forecast for tonight with no TRICKS. However, the tricks come with the temptation of rain late tomorrow and tomorrownight but instead most of us will be like "I got a rock" when thecold front moves through tomorrow night.As you get ready to dawn those costumes, some of you may want a to ad a cloak or make those poofy pants with a little more poofy as it could get a little chilly by the end of your candy seeking escapades. With high pressure already in place this evening, and highs only getting into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area today the stage is set and the cauldron has been brewed for another great radiational cooling night. High pressure at the sfc will keep the area quiet with dry air and light winds in place. Dewpoints in firmly in the lower to mid 40s will allow the temperature to begin to plummet as soon as the sun starts to go down. Temps will still be in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area to start the evening but by 2/3Z temps will drop into the lower to mid 50s for all but the river parishes and Southshore (excluding the west bank of NO as that area will cool quickly as well). Temperatures will continue to drop through the night and by tomorrow morning outside of the immediate Southshore morning lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 40s with isolated areas again dipping into the upper 30s in the drainage basins. As for the rest of the weekend this is where the trick in the forecast has come into play. We have a system moving through the area and it will bring a reinforcing cold front through the region. Earlier in the week models suggested a rather wet pattern setting up with locally heavy rain Sunday and into Monday but over the last 48 hours models quickly trended drier to even the point that coastal LA may be the only land areas that see any real rain while much lighter rain or more so sprinkles occur along the I-10 corridor in LA. North of 10 looks dry now. All of the reliable guidance agrees with this and given the strong trend and support agree with that. Looking at GOES19 you can clearly see the initial culprit is a strong s/w moving into southern MN already with an associated cold front beginning to enter the Mid MS Valley and Central Plains. Strong mid lvl winds are already dropping down the back side and this will cause the trough to start to dig the system over the eastern CONUS. The next much strong mid lvl surge coming down the backside of the already digging trough is in central Canada and will enhance the mid lvl jet tomorrow and this will greatly amplify and help to dig the trough but the problem is longitudinally the core is already almost directly in line with us. So as the trough digs and deepens the best forcing and any real airmass recovery will be east of the area. The window becomes very small for any real moisture recovery and that would actually be from top down but even isentropically the only real isentropic lift will be across southwestern LA and then that digs to the southeast pretty much completely south off the SELA coast overnight. With that rain is going to be very hard to come by and then by sunrise any rain that is even out which would be south of I-10 will quickly push southeast out of the area with a cool and getting drier Sunday in place. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday night)Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Overall the extended portion of the forecast is fairly benign with mainly a temperature problem. Models continue to indicate a dry forecast next week with a cool start to the work week ending with possibly a rather warm Friday from a high standpoint. Overallthe only real forecast opportunity is temperatures and that is mainly Monday and Tuesday. The Operational NBM just looks awful from a morning low forecast for Monday and Tuesday. The deterministic forecast continue to be well above the 75th or 90th percentile depending on the site and day. To be fair it is not that awful for the entire area the main areas that make it look sobad is at our typical colder sites where the forecast low from the NBM is anywhere from 4 to 6 degrees higher than the 50th percentile. Now the other thing to mention the experimental NBM forecast for the lows Monday and Tuesday is actually within 1 degree of the operational NBM50 and looks very good. Given that stuck almost exclusively with the NBM50 especially in the drainageareas and also dropped the dewpoints down considerably from the NBM.Next week begins with northwest flow as we are on the backside of the digging east CONUS L/W trough digs into the southeastern CONUS and eastern Gulf. But this quickly slides east with a strong ridge over TX on Monday sliding east Tuesday and the ridge continues to slide east through the middle of the week. That said this ridge flattens out considerably. What this does is it will allow the area to moderate beginning Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the week but we likely won't see4 the real warm up till Friday when 80s could be a little more widespread. So the main focus is on morning lows Monday and Tuesday and mentioned in the previous paragraph we dropped the forecast considerably going with the NBM50 and are explicitly showing lows dropping into the upper 30s with a low value of 37 in a few locations. We look quite cold again Sunday and Monday night. However, there are some caveats that could come back to bite though. For Monday morning...are there any lingering highs clouds; that does not look like the case. Winds, that is the biggest concern Sunday night/Monday morning. At the sfc high pressure is quickly building back in but it will not be completely over the area yet. That said the boundary layer winds will likely decouple with light and vrb winds and possibly even calm in the drainage locations. However, just above the boundary layer in the LL winds may remain a little strong. H925 winds could remain as high as 20 kts all night while h85 could stray around 25 kts. However there is some rather decent CAA taking place late Sunday and all Sunday night. Typically in the decent CAA regimes winds stay up and looking at the impressive h925 and h85 CAA that will likely be able to overcome any mixing potential. As for Monday night at first glance the radiational cooling setup looks really good. High pressure, light winds, dry conditions, and likely clear skies. The one thing to watch is the opposite of Sunday night. There is rather impressive WAA in the LL late Monday and overnight and when that happens and can have a pretty decent impact on overnight cooling. The one positive aspect towards radiational cooling is that we will be VERY dry and whet we likely see will be a very sharp inversion in the boundary layer with the temperature likely warming by 15 to 20 degrees in 400' or less. just here at the office this morning at balloon launch time we had a 15 degree temperature inversion in under 400' and it was likely even more than that when we finally hit our low this morning. The rest of the forecast is quiet, with warming conditions and a dry forecast. Again for the temps warming morning lows will still be quite comfortable and slightly below normal thanks to the dry conditions leading to nice diurnal ranges for the second half of the week as highs warm into the 70s with isolated 80s by Thursday and maybe a little more widespread on Friday. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Again there are no concerns aviation wise as VFR conditions will most likely persist at all terminals. Can not completely rule out HUM from showing FG/BR again tomorrow morning however that is very shallow ground fog typically only 3-5 ft high and not a concern. All other terminals will be good. Next system move through late tomorrow afternoon and through the night. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Quite and cool conditions will persist for another 18 hours before the next system begins to move in. This system will move across the north-central Gulf Saturday night and Sunday bringing a reinforcing cold front. Along and just ahead of this front there will be scattered showers and along with an isolated embedded thunderstorms overnight but everything will move through very quickly and this front will be through the coastal waters shortly after sunrise if not sooner. Winds will increase briefly with moderate to strong offshore winds over the mostly the open waters Sunday morning through Sunday night. SCS or low end SCY headlines will likely be needed for the open waters. Through Monday as high pressure builds in, winds will relax slowly veering through the week with weak onshore flow returning be the second half of the work week. /CAB/&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 42 68 45 64 / 0 0 10 0 BTR 45 72 47 68 / 0 10 10 0 ASD 39 71 46 69 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 52 73 56 72 / 0 0 20 10 GPT 46 70 51 70 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 38 72 44 71 / 0 0 10 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
