JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 5:40 PM EST153
FXUS63 KJKL 072240
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
540 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms persist into tonight and then taper
off. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially over
south central KY.
- The coldest air mas of the season so far arrives on Sunday.
- The first widespread snow of the season are expected Sunday
night into Monday, with some very light accumulations possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 540 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
A weakening cold front is about to enter KY from the northwest
early this evening. Mild and humid air (by November standards) is
streaming northeast into the area ahead of the front. Along with
ascent from the associated upper trough approaching, showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing. Strong low-mid level flow is resulting
in decent shear, but instability is rather weak. The warmest
temp/dew point and greatest instability is in our far southwest
counties where the afternoon activity has been minimal. That area
has been included by SPC at the northeastern edge of a tornado
watch this evening. The cold front will pass southeast tonight and
precip will taper off. Drying is expected behind the front, but
how effective this is at ground level after our rain is
questionable as flow becomes fairly weak. This could allow for fog
to develop (especially in valleys) where clouds break up
sufficiently before dawn. This is most likely in our western
counties.
A quiet day is on the way for Saturday. With significant cooling
lacking behind the front, and sunshine returning, it will be a
mild day with highs in the 60s.
A deepening low pressure system tracks by just north of KY on
Saturday night in association with a shortwave trough rotating
through a deepening eastern CONUS upper trough. This system will
send a much stronger cold front through the region, with the front
possibly not cleared out of our eastern counties yet by dawn on
Sunday. Won't rule out a few showers with the second cold fropa,
but it doesn't look like anything of significance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
As a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms pushes through
Eastern Kentucky Friday afternoon, the next system begins to take
shape over the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is modeled to
spill out of the Pac. NW deepening into a large trough over the
Central Plains by Saturday. While strong ridging builds over the
West Coast, multiple shortwave impulses re-enforce cold air working
down from Hudson Bay, Canada.
By Sunday morning, rain showers are expected to move through the
area as part of the first shortwave. Diurnal spread is expected to
be minimal with temperatures starting in the upper 40s in the
morning warming into the upper 40s to low 50s by early afternoon.
After-which, cold air is re-enforced heading into the later
afternoon, evening, and overnight. P-type will likely change over
from rain to snow after sunset, becoming all snow overnight into
Monday morning. Looking at the Grand Ensemble for snowfall Sunday
through Monday there remains a 40-60% chance the area receives up to
0.5 inches of snowfall. While the probability of exceeding 1 inch of
snow remains greatest (50-60% chance) around the Black Mountain area
and vicinity in the highest terrain along the Virginia boarder. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be the coldest we've seen in some
time, in the low to mid 20s for much of the area.
By Monday morning, snow showers will likely be ongoing, as a 524-dm
low is modeled over the Ohio Valley. As this low pulls to the
northeast through the afternoon snow showers will taper off. High
temperatures will be chilly, in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds will
slowly dissipate in the evening, leading to low temperatures in the
low to mid 20s.
Tuesday through Friday, a warming trend will follow for the
remainder of the long-term period as height rises return to the area
under quasi-linear flow. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons,
with gusts up to 20-25 mph both Tuesday and Wednesday (lighter winds
beyond). Temperatures Tuesday will generally remain in the mid to
upper 40s, before warming into the mid to upper 50s Wednesday and
Thursday, reaching 60 in some spots Friday. Overnight lows generally
remain in the mid 30s through Thursday night, and low 40s Friday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
Largely VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, but
a line of showers and a few thunderstorms was beginning to advance
into the area from the northwest. The area of precipitation will
continue to transition southeast across the JKL forecast area
this afternoon and evening. With this, generally MVFR conditions
are forecast to develop, with a potential for IFR at times.
Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast tonight, but
MVFR ceilings will probably persist longer. A return to VFR
conditions is expected generally from west to east late tonight
and on Wednesday morning. However, where clouds break up well,
there will be a potential for valley fog to develop and last
through early Wednesday morning. This would result in localized
IFR or worse conditions.
There will also be southwesterly wind gusts of about 20-30 kts
this afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 5:40 PM EST---------------
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