ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 6:42 AM EDT064
FXUS61 KILN 301042
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast across the region today, with
drier and cooler air moving in behind it. High pressure will
then build south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight
and Monday, continuing the cooler and drier weather. Heat and
humidity will return, along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, by midweek as the high departs and the next
frontal system makes its way into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will make its way southeast across the region this
morning, and should be southeast of the forecast area by early
to mid afternoon. A chance of a shower or storm will persist
until frontal passage. Thereafter, northerly winds will increase
and become gusty, ushering cooler and drier air into the
region. Skies by this afternoon will range from mostly sunny to
partly cloudy as some CAA cumulus occurs. Highs will range from
the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s along and south of the Ohio
River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Skies will clear tonight as surface high pressure builds south
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Gusty winds will settle
down as the surface flow ranges from north to northeast. The
much drier and cooler airmass will allow lows to fall into the
lower to mid 50s. A few upper 40s are not out of the realm of
possibility.
On Monday, the high will continue to extend across the region.
Mainly sunny skies are expected. After a cool start, highs will
range from the mid and upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather is forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as high
pressure settles across the Great Lakes. A slow moving boundary
will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms for the
remainder of the period from Wednesday through Saturday.
Greatest threat for widespread storms appears to be on Thursday
when a large swath of deep moisture and short wave energy
interacts with an unstable airmass. Too early to pinpoint timing
and location for severe weather but it is likely that some
strong to severe storms will occur with this humid and unstable
weather regime.
Temperatures look close to normal to start the period, with
highs Tuesday in the mid and upper 80s. Warm advection ahead of
the boundary will boost highs into the 90s on Wednesday, with
apparent temps around 100. Clouds and precip may limit highs to
the 80s for Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move southeast across the remainder of the
region between 12Z and 18Z. Winds will veer to the north behind
the front. By 15Z, north winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Some SCT CAA cumulus clouds
will occur behind the front. Gustiness will diminish between 23Z
and 01Z.
For tonight, high pressure will build southward into the
central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Skies will be mostly
clear. North to northeast winds will range between 5 and 10
knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 6:42 AM EDT---------------
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