PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 5:11 AM CST257
FXUS63 KPAH 051111
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
511 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions continue through
Thursday.
- A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the area on Friday, a few stronger storms can't be ruled out.
- A significant cool down is expected early next week, with lows
falling below freezing for the first time this year. Highs may
struggle to reach the low 40s on Monday and wind chills in the
mornings may dip into the upper teens to lower 20s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Area of low pressure will move across the Great Lakes today
bringing a dry cold front through the region. Highs today will
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure
filters in behind the front Wednesday night bringing continued
dry weather through Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler, but
still slightly above normal.
Troughing develops across the plains late in the week with
another surface low expected to track through the Great Lakes on
Friday. This will send another front through the region.
Moisture is expected to be better this time around with a band
of showers and thunderstorms along the front. Not much has
changed with regards to CAPE values on Friday. As previously
mentioned, wind fields will be sufficient for organized
convection but there still remain questions on instability. If
we continue to trend upward with instability, then strong to
possibly severe storms may develop. There has been a signal for
better instability further east owing to the timing of the
frontal passage. Needless to say still a bit of uncertainty but
something to watch.
Drier air filters in behind the front for Saturday before
another disturbance is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley
Saturday night into Sunday. Light rain is possible with the
passage of this system. A much cooler airmass is expected to
move in behind this system with the coldest temperatures of the
season thus far. Lows will fall into the 20s both Sunday and
Monday nights with highs only in the 40s on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Main aviation focus will be the wind shift associated with a
cold front that moves through the region today. Southwest winds
this morning will turn toward the northwest by the afternoon
with speeds to 8-13 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will
begin to calm tonight. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 5:11 AM CST---------------
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