LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:13 PM EST052
FXUS63 KLMK 062013
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* The next chance of rain will come Friday as a cold front brings
showers and a few potentially severe storms over south central
and eastern Kentucky.
* Another cold front Sunday night into Monday will bring cold
temperatures and a chance for scattered snow showers. Little to
no accumulation expected given warm ground/road temps.
* Cold mornings in the 20s Monday and Tuesday will be followed by
dry and milder weather by mid to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Quiet weather continues today and tonight, however we'll be focusing
on an approaching cold front for Friday, and the possibility of some
strong to severe storms, especially across southern and eastern
portions of our area. Temps are currently peaking in the low and mid
60s this afternoon, with fairly mild temps expected overnight as the
warm front begins to lift north over our area. Lows will likely drop
off into the 40s early, and then perhaps steady steady or even rise
toward dawn on Friday. This will occur as the low level jet cranks
up to 40-45 knots overnight, allowing for better moisture transport
over the area, and some of the momentum starting to mix down toward
the surface.
Gusty SW to NE winds take hold through late morning into the
afternoon ahead of the cold front. Most gusts should range between
20 and 30 mph, but a few gusts up around 35 mph can't be ruled out.
A brief warm sector does get established over our area for the
afternoon into the early evening hours. HREF probs for any ML CAPE
values near 500 J/KG are only 20-30% across central KY, so it
appears we'll be working with around 200 or 300 J/KG of ML CAPE max
for this event. Soundings seem to confirm it with lower levels
looking somewhat stable. MUCAPE values will be slightly more
impressive and could peak in the 500-750 J/KG range, so updrafts
will likely be robust enough for some thunder, hail given the lower
freezing levels, and perhaps some wind gusts making it down to the
surface with the higher momentum air aloft contributing. The brief
tornado threat for our south and east CWA seems pretty well messaged
with the Marginal 2% probs. Not very likely, but not completely out
of the realm of possibility. Our SW surface winds, and fairly
unidirectional shear profile thereafter only yields around 150 M2/S2
of SRH (with a subtle stable layer to also compete with), so the tor
threat does indeed look marginal, but not zero. A supercell or two
across our SE CWA cannot be ruled out, and some larger hail and a
slightly better chance for a tornado (assuming deviant right motion)
would be the best chance for a severe report or two. Showers and
storms should be exiting our eastern CWA around sunset on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Friday Night - Saturday...
Showers and perhaps a few stronger storms will be exiting our
eastern CWA by early evening. This will be followed by a brief dry
period for the remainder of Friday night and the daylight hours on
Saturday. Overall, Saturday should yield some pleasant fall weather
with highs in the 65 to 70 degree range under partly sunny skies.
Saturday Night - Monday Night...
The late weekend and early work week time frame looks to be a our
first real taste of more wintry like conditions as an anomalously
deep trough carves out over the eastern CONUS, reinforced by at
least two notable shortwaves. The second of these shortwave will be
the most intense.
The first wave arrives Saturday night as surface low pressure
develops/strengthens near or over our area and then passes quickly
NE by Sunday. We'll see scattered light rain showers Saturday night
ahead of the digging upper trough axis, but the real story will
likely be increasingly cold and gusty conditions heading into Sunday
morning. Overall, Sunday will be a raw day with gusty NW winds on
strong cold advection, and highs likely not making it out of the low
and mid 40s for most. This will likely be one of those days where
the diurnal range is quite small. We'll keep isolated to widely
scattered rain showers (mainly lapse rate driven) in the forecast
through the day.
The second wave arrives Sunday night into Monday, and looks to be
quite potent with roughly 525 H5 heights over our near us, and
dragging another reinforcing cold front through the area. Expect
some lapse rate driven snow showers later Sunday night into Monday
with temperatures crashing well into the 20s by Monday morning. With
surfaces likely still above freezing it doesn't look like we'll see
much accumulations, however low level lapse rates will be steepening
and saturation up through the bottom part of the DGZ could yield at
least some briefly moderate snow showers. As a result, could pick up
a dusting, mainly on elevated surfaces in some spots. There is a
more bullish solution suggest by the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models that suggests some heavier swaths of snow could fall thanks
to a favorable trajectory of 1000-700 mb moisture off Lake Michigan.
This scenario is a possibility, especially for our NE CWA. Latest
EFI plots do show a statistically significant event could occur (for
early November) given a shift of tails signal on the 06/00z run.
Snow showers end by Monday night, but likely the coldest morning of
our season occurs early Tuesday. Lows look to bottom out in the low
to mid 20s.
Tuesday - Thursday...
The mid week portion of the forecast trends dry under low amplitude
and benign NW flow aloft. Temperatures will also be working toward a
milder feel. It won't be without a very cold start on Tuesday
morning with lows in the low and mid 20s! Tuesday highs will
struggle mostly to the 45 to 50 degree range under mostly sunny
skies, but still notably below normal for this time of year (around
15 degree below). Wednesday and Thursday highs will be back near
normal in the upper 50s and low 60s each day, with surface high
pressure gradually gaining control over the area beneath a continued
quiet NW flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Quiet and VFR day continues with sunny skies and a light E to ESE
wind. Winds will trend lighter this evening and veer to a more SE
component, however we will see a 40-45 knot low level jet ramp up
across the region after Midnight. Will continue LLWS mention below
2k feet to account for this, and will also increase mid and upper
clouds during this time (still VFR). LLWS should start to let go of
the area around sunrise as surface gusts kick in with a warm front
lifting north across the area. Look for S to SSW winds gusting up
around 20 to 30 mph through the afternoon, with Scattered mid level
clouds giving way to likely MVFR conditions later in the afternoon
and evening. Most of the SHRA/TSRA development ahead of the
approaching cold front will occur just outside of this TAF cycle,
however look for it in subsequent updates.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:13 PM EST---------------
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