NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 29, 5:00 AM EDT376
WTNT43 KNHC 290852
TCDAT3
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Radar data and satellite images indicate that Melissa made landfall
in the province of Santiago de Cuba to the east of Chivirico around
0710 UTC this morning. The estimated landfall intensity of 105 kt
was based on a blend of the earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind
and pressure data with the available satellite intensity estimates.
The hurricane is now centered inland over eastern Cuba, where
damaging winds and heavy rainfall continue across the region. Outer
rainbands are also noted across Haiti and portions of the Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos. Land interaction with the rugged terrain of
eastern Cuba has likely caused some weakening over the past couple
of hours, so the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.
The hurricane is moving to the northeast at 10 kt within the flow
between an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. After crossing eastern Cuba this
morning, Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward
during the next several days. This motion will bring the core of the
hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas
later today. Then, the track models are tightly clustered on the
center of Melissa passing to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night. With good overall model agreement, no notable
changes were made to this portion of the NHC track forecast. There
was a leftward shift in much of the guidance at 96-120 h, and the
official track forecast was adjusted to reflect these trends.
Additional weakening is expected while the hurricane moves across
eastern Cuba this morning. Melissa is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it crosses portions of the Bahamas later today. Over
the next few days, increasing vertical wind shear, cooler waters,
and a drier surrounding mid-level environment will likely induce
further weakening. However, Melissa is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda later this
week. Then, the global model fields and model-simulated satellite
imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and
becoming an extratropical cyclone by Friday night or early Saturday.
No major changes were made to the updated NHC intensity prediction,
which remains near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of
communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected
through this morning.
3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning.
Remain in a safe shelter.
4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe
shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.
5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 76.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 29.0N 69.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 34.2N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 40.3N 58.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 53.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 58.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 29, 5:00 AM EDT---------------
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