ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:45 AM EDT460
FXUS61 KILN 300545
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
145 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the area continues to provide light to
moderate rain and breezy conditions today. Even as the rain clears
this evening temperatures will be chilly, falling to the mid 40s.
Friday and Saturday will be drier, though isolated showers are
possible. A slightly warmer trend back into the upper 50s and lower
60s is expected early next week along with dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Steady rain and breezy conditions remain the primary themes for
today as the low pressure moves up the Appalachians into the upper
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The local area sits within the
plentiful wrap around moisture on the western side of the low
pressure. So while there may be some breaks in the rain in some parts
of the area early this morning, confidence is high that more
widespread rain once again overspreads throughout the morning and
into the early afternoon. Dry air begins to work into the area from
west to east, bringing a conclusion to the rain across eastern
Indiana and the tri-state during the afternoon. The dryness gradually
works eastward throughout the evening, finally ending the steady
rain across the Columbus area by 7-8 pm. Additional rainfall amounts
of 0.50 to 1.00" are expected by the evening time frame with the
highest amounts up to 1.50" focused between Dayton and Columbus,
including the middle and upper Scioto River Valley. Rainfall will be
lightest across eastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Radar trends
throughout the morning will help increase confidence on where the
heaviest rain occurs. See the climate section below for daily
rainfall records, all of which happen to be less than one inch.
The pressure gradient tightens across the area today as the low
pressure deepens below 1000 mb off to the east. This will support
steady northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph. Wind gusts over 30 mph are possible across the Columbus area
later this afternoon and early evening as the low pressure pivots
over western Pennsylvania, briefly enhancing the tightness of the
pressure gradient. As they decrease winds become more northwesterly
this evening.
Given the steady rainfall, extensive cloudiness, and northerly wind
direction, temperatures likely remain steady throughout the entire
day. Breaks in the rain may allow for temperatures to rise a few
degrees warmer across southern Ohio, northern Kentucky, and eastern
Indiana but it won't be noticeable. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
linger in the mid to upper 40s throughout the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As the moisture pulls away tonight, breaks in the clouds can be
expected across eastern Indian and western Ohio, but a weak shortwave
may provide some scattered mid and upper level clouds. Westerly
winds and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s means Friday morning
likely requires some additional layers of clothing for those headed
outdoors. Temperatures do recover from the 30s into the afternoon
but are still below normal (upper 40s and lower 50s) so additional
layers are likely needed for any evening outdoor activities. A weak
mid- level system may provide a few sprinkles or very brief showers,
but chances remain fairly low.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first feature of the long term period is a rather large but weak
trough axis stretching southwestward from the Great Lakes into the
central and southern Plains. The overall forcing downstream is quite
weak and moisture is lackluster resulting in meager precipitation
production. The forecast continues to contain slight chance mentions
across parts of the area but most locations are dry. Expect these
chances to bounce around in the upcoming forecasts given the weak
nature of this system. There isn't a considerable change in air mass
during this period, so high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are
roughly the same, the mid to upper 50s.
The jury is still out on whether or not the trough simply slides off
to the east or if it consolidate to the south as a cutoff low for a
few days early next week. Cluster analysis reveals the guidance is
split pretty evenly on both solutions, so additional time is likely
needed before latching on to either one. Even with this uncertainty
in the evolution of this feature, confidence remains high that a more
zonal pattern with steady west-northwesterly flow will resume of the
Midwest and Great Lakes by the middle of the week. Some warmth will
able to build back into the area into Wednesday, with 60s returning
for much of the area. A weak cold front may put a damper on this
warming trend Monday night into Tuesday, but for now, it would be
limited and short-lived.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure moving through the region continues to provide aviation
restrictions early this morning and through much of the period.
Improvement back to VFR is forecast by the end of the period for all
sites as drier air moves in from the west.
Before that arrives, all sites will deal with rain (MVFR conditions)
and low CIGs (mostly IFR conditions although still can't rule out
LIFR). There will be a few breaks in the rain between 06-12Z, but
additional development is forecast later this morning. Wind gusts
over 20 knots have become less frequent early this morning, but these
will also ramp back up during the late morning and afternoon. Some
gusts of 25 to 30 knots are also possible, primarily for
DAY/ILN,CMH,and LCK between 18Z-23Z. Winds are initially north-
northeasterly but are turning more northerly and will become more
northwesterly by the end of the period. CVG will see westerly winds
by 12Z Friday.
As the low pressure moves to the east of the region, a persistent
rain band is expected today. Drier air moves in from the west
throughout the afternoon, drying out CVG,LUK, and DAY first between
20-22Z. Improvements from IFR/MVFR CIGs occur as the rain concludes,
with the changing conditions traveling from west to east after 00Z.
CMH and LCK are the last locations to see improvements, changing to
VFR by 04Z.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily rainfall records are possible today, primarily due to the
low amounts compared to the rest of the month.
Columbus (CMH): 0.78" set in 1878
Dayton (DAY): 0.78" set in 1926
Cincinnati (CVG): 0.88" set in 1976
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...McGinnis
CLIMATE...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:45 AM EDT---------------
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