PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 12:34 PM CDT701
FXUS63 KPAH 311734
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend,
with the coolest air areawide expected Sunday. Frost will
likely become more widespread across the Quad State early
Sunday, and especially early Monday.
- Rain chances continue to trend upward Saturday. Most of the
region should receive at least some light rain, and southern
and eastern portions of the region could see a quarter to a
third of an inch.
- South winds return next week, and temperatures will climb back
to normal Monday and then above normal for the remainder of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
A potent upper low will dive southward through the Quad State
Saturday night. Much of the 00Z guidance is in agreement in a
zone of frontogenetical forcing producing modest QPF ahead of
the upper low Saturday mainly in the afternoon and evening. No
thunder is forecast at this time, but some models are showing
some very meager instability. This would be due to the cool air
aloft rather than any significant warming/moistening in the
low-levels.
QPF is 0.3"-0.5" over west Kentucky and tapers down to the
north and west. The I-64 corridor in southern Illinois will
likely see the least amount of rainfall and could even stay dry
through the event. The rainfall will spread from southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois around midday and then across
the remainder of the Quad State in the afternoon and evening. It
should exit to the east in the overnight hours Saturday night.
Temperatures will remain well below normal through the weekend,
with the entire region expected to only reach the middle 50s
Sunday. Lows Saturday night may approach the freezing mark in a
few locations along the northwest periphery of the Quad State
from Mt Vernon Illinois to the Ozark Foothills. A more
significant frost is likely over much of the region Sunday
morning, and again Monday morning when lows will be in the
middle 30s areawide.
The forecast for next week is somewhat muddled with zonal flow
aloft expected. The timing of disturbances in that flow and any
associated surface frontal passages results in considerable
uncertainty in the day to day details of the forecast. However,
it should generally be warm and dry through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
A low pressure system dropping south into the area, will bring
an increase in cloud cover tonight through Saturday evening.
Ceilings will steadily lower to around 3000ft for the western
TAF sites toward the end of this issuance, while the rest of TAF
sites will lower just beyond this issuance. Rain will be on the
increase as well, but should hold off until around or just after
18Z Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 12:34 PM CDT---------------
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