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591 FXUS64 KMOB 300945AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area throughMonday. This will maintain a generally northerly flow patternaloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will maintainscattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.The storms will be most numerous near the coast each morning andspreading inland through the afternoon hours, graduallydissipating during the evening hours. Another hot day expected today with highs in the mid 90s. This combined with dew point temps in the mid to upper 70s for most locations on Sunday will result in heat indices likely peaking in the 108-110 degree range,at least for a period of time, for many locations Sunday this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Monday. As a result,a Heat Advisory remains in effect today. Another advisory is possible on Monday as well. A high risk of rip currents remains ineffect today followed by moderate on Monday. /13&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024An upper high pressure system centered over the ARKLATEX region will shift eastward over the southeast states Tuesday through Friday, becoming somewhat flattened the latter half of the work week as a train of shortwaves pass over the Lower Midwest. The upper high will then get nudge eastward off the coast as we head into the weekend as an upper trough advances eastward over the Mississippi River and Great Lakes regions. A weak surface trough across the area Monday night and Tuesday will be replaced by a ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf through the end of the week. Ample moisture below 700mb will remain over the region throughout the week, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, followed a more scattered (typical summertime 40% coverage) as we roll into the 4th of July and beyond. As this time, it looks like it will be dry across the entire area the evening of the 4th of July with heat indices around sunset in the mid 90s.Summertime heat persists this week and into next weekend with highs topping out in the 90s each day. Given the moisture over the region, dewpoints will be juicy and thus the heat indices will approach and potentially exceed Heat Advisory criteria each day.Beach Note: A LOW risk of rip currents is expected to return Tuesdaythrough the 4th of July. /22&&.MARINE...Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 95 76 96 75 93 76 91 76 / 70 30 60 10 50 20 70 10 Pensacola 92 77 94 78 89 79 90 78 / 70 40 60 30 70 30 60 10 Destin 90 79 93 80 89 79 90 79 / 70 40 70 40 70 30 60 10 Evergreen 93 74 96 73 92 73 93 73 / 70 30 40 10 60 10 70 10 Waynesboro 94 73 95 70 96 73 93 73 / 60 30 20 0 40 10 60 0 Camden 94 73 93 72 91 73 93 73 / 60 30 10 0 40 10 50 10 Crestview 94 74 96 75 92 74 93 74 / 70 30 60 20 70 20 70 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
