IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 10:41 AM EDT944
FXUS63 KIND 261441
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1041 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic chances for rain through next weekend
- Gusty winds and moderate rainfall for parts of the area are
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
- Near to slightly below temperatures will continue
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Confluent upper flow continues across the northern Ohio Valley
leading to weak lift on the periphery of the Great Lakes high. This
may lead to some light showers over southwestern central Indiana
Otherwise only some very light isolated showers or sprinkles are
possible elsewhere along weak CVA upstream of the trough.
Temperatures may vary significantly across southern Indiana
depending on how far north the mid to upper level cloud reaches.
Beneath deeper cloud cover expected highs near 60, where as areas
with thin cloud cover and or breaks will likely push into the mid
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Early This Morning...
Weak lift ahead of a upper trough moving into the northern
forecast area along with some weak isentropic lift from an upper low
well to the west is bringing some sprinkles/very light rain to
portions of the western and southern forecast area early this
morning. This lift will gradually shift south and weaken some, but
will have a mention of sprinkles or very low PoPs as needed.
Today...
As the northern upper trough axis passes by this morning, drier air
and subsidence will move in to the northern forecast area. This will
clear out some of the clouds there. Mid level moisture will linger
across the southern forecast area, but forcing will diminish,
decreasing the threat of sprinkles/very light rain there.
During the afternoon, as the upper low to the west moves closer to
the area, some lift from deformation will move into the far
southwest forecast area. Low level moisture will remain quite
limited, but there looks to be enough overall moisture for some low
PoPs in the far southwest. An upper high to the north of the area
will keep some sunshine and dry conditions across the north.
Highs today will be in the lower 60s most areas.
Tonight...
Some weak forcing from deformation will move farther north into the
forecast area, but the upper high to the north will still keep most
of the area dry. Will have some lower PoPs across the southwest
third or so of the area. Skies will be partly cloudy north and
mostly cloudy south.
These conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s
north and into lower and middle 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
A cool and fairly active pattern is setting up for the extended
period with temperatures closer to seasonal norms and a few chances
for light rain.
There is overall lower confidence in forecasted conditions for any
period given the dynamic nature of the upper pattern. That said, the
long term should begin with mainly fair weather on Monday...
featuring more of the moderate easterly breeze and a gradient in sky
cover with more clouds and perhaps a few showers to the
southwest
The next storm system to focus on arrives late Tuesday into
Wednesday as a jet streak dives southeastward along the front range
of the Rockies and deepens over the Plains, inducing surface
cyclogenesis southwest of Indiana. There is still some discrepancies
among ensembles on the track and locations of the developing low.
Recent model runs today have shown better agreement in a surface low
developing somewhere in the Mid Mississippi or Ohio Valley while
Indiana remains on the north side of the system. Increasing chances
of rain would be greatest south of I-70, and centered around a peak
in rain coverage during the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe as the
system likely passes to our southeast. This occluding cyclone may
also reorganize by jumping east of the Appalachians, which would
decrease local rainfall amounts and wind intensity. Robust to gusty
breezes are most likely across central Indiana Wednesday.
The potential for heavy rainfall totals so far appears greatest
near/south of the Ohio Valley...with light rainfall amounts most
likely north of I-70. However should a less likely solution verify,
bringing the storm track farther north/west into Ohio, moderate to
heavy rainfall would be possible for most of the local region.
Tuesday and onward should bring seasonably cool nights with lows
around 35-45F...with near/below normal daytime highs in the 50s.
Halloween: Confidence is low going toward the end of next week. The
active weather pattern is expected to continue into early November
with indications of another storm system in the November 1-3
timeframe. At the moment, it looks like the midweek storm system
will be departing by Friday, leaving Indiana in a northwesterly flow
pattern with cool, breezy, and relatively dry conditions for
Halloween. Will be watching the next several systems closely as any
major changes to the timing, track, and evolution of these systems
will significantly change the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Impacts: None
Discussion:
Mainly mid clouds are expected through the period, with some partial
clearing for a time at KLAF/KIND this afternoon.
Ceilings will generally be 8000-12000FT as the lower levels of the
atmosphere will remain dry thanks to high pressure.
Winds will generally be easterly. Speeds will be up to around 10kt,
with some gusts around 15kt possible this afternoon.
Some sprinkles are possible at KHUF/KBMG mainly early this morning
and again tonight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM/CM
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 10:41 AM EDT---------------
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