PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:59 PM CDT911
FXUS63 KPAH 251959
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances increase early Sunday morning and with the
exception of a brief break Monday afternoon and evening,
continue through Wednesday night.
- Temperatures will be seasonably cool (5-10 degrees) below
normal through Tuesday then dip behind a front on Wednesday to
10-15 degrees below normal then gradually come back to the 60s
by the weekend.
- Drier conditions Thursday through the weekend. Cold but dry
for Halloween.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Sfc high pressure is still in control for today but is slowly
eroding as a weak sfc low approaches from the southwest. The upper
levels feature a closed southern stream low lagging behind a
northern stream trof to the northeast. PoPs start to ramp up closer
to tomorrow morning as the current dry boundary layer is eroded away
by modest WAA and frontogenesis. Cloud cover will keep us seasonably
cool (about 5-10 degrees below normal).
As this upper low passes through and phases back into the flow,
we'll see a brief break on Monday afternoon and evening before the
influence of the next longwave trof is felt. A digging trof
amplifies as it approaches from the west and closes off by Wednesday
morning, pushing a sfc low and front through the area. PoPs start to
ramp back up by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are seasonably cool
through Tuesday then take a dip behind the front for Wednesday into
the mid to upper 50s and then steadily climb back into the 60s by
the weekend. We then dry out Thursday into the weekend as the low
pressure system wraps up and moves northeast. Behind the cold front
we could see lows in the 30s Wednesday night through Friday night,
making for a cold but dry Halloween.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Winds are
5-10 kts out of the east. Cigs are around 7k-10k ft and will
persist and thicken through tomorrow. Some showers are expected
to move up from the southwest overnight and into tomorrow.
Light showers could impact CGI and PAH late morning tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:59 PM CDT---------------
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