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904 FXUS64 KMOB 261740AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL1240 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected to continue today. Strong onshore winds will create a High Risk of life- threatening rip currents, high surf, and hazards to small craft. - Risk of strong to severe storms shifts eastward across the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Storms that develop south of a warm front may pose the risk of becoming strong to severe, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the main threats. - A much colder airmass moves into the area later this week bringing the coldest air so far this season. Strong northwest winds in the wake of the front brings higher seas Wednesday and Thursday. &&.UPDATE...Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025Vigorous southern stream storm system exiting the southern Plains maintains an active high level southwest flow over the central Gulf coast the remainder of the afternoon. An organized area of showers and embedded storms translates eastward. At the surface, a quasi- stationary front/warm front was draped over southern MS crossing across Mobile/Baldwin Co's. Along and south of the warm front, the environment is more unstable over the coastal waters, where surface based CAPE is exceeding 1000 J/KG but has shown little tono northward displacement. Effective Bulk Shear magnitudes 45 to 60 Kts. Best 0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 M2/S2 to support persistent, rotating updrafts remains anchored north of the boundary over MS into western AL though is not aligned with the better instability. Despite this, radar has shown several northward moving cells primarily over the marine area representingwith couplets of rotation and resulting in a tornado threat. Organized area of showers and embedded storms translates eastward through the remainder of the day with severe weather threat looking to shift to the western FL Panhandle. The severe weather threat north of the coast appears very limited for now as storms that lift north off the surface boundary will become increasingly elevated. Considering recent rainfall, probabilities of night-timefog development has increased and will add this potential to the gridded forecasts. Chances of showers and storms linger into tonight before drier air spreads in on Monday and brings a reduction in PoPs most areas through the course of the day, save for the northeast zones where a small PoP may hold going into the afternoon. Will monitor tide gauges tonight as levels are currently a hairabove forecast and we are moving into higher tidal cycles tonight.How high they go will be highly dependent on strength of onshore flow which looks to begin diminishing as frontal axis closes in. Drier and cooler conditions move in late Monday into Tuesday as the upper trough moves east of the area. A much stronger trough develops over the eastern states during the latter half of the week. This will send a strong cold front through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a much cooler airmass moving into the area following its passage. Only isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected ahead of this front due to the lack of significant moisture return. The change of seasons is upon us. Overnight lows turning crisp byas we close out the month of October. Coolest highs will be in the lower to mid 60s inland to mid to upper 60s near the coastThursday and Friday before gradually moderating going into the weekend. Beginning Wednesday night, lows sink into the lower to mid 40s across much of the area north of the coast where numbers range 46 to 52. The coldest night will likely be Thursday and Friday nights with some mid to upper 30s possible inland. /10&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025Scattered to numerous shra/tsra will impact approaches anddepartures through the afternoon with brief reductions in vsby andstrong wind gusts in and near any tsra. Lowest cigs/vsby at IFRcategories. /10 &&.MARINE...Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025A moderate to strong southeasterly flow through this evening ahead of a cold front transitions to a light to moderate northerly flow Monday in the wake of its passage. A stronger cold front makes passage through the area Tuesday night, bringing a strong northwesterly flow to the area Wednesday into Thursday and higher sea states. With the strong northwest fetch setup, the higher seas look to be in the 20 to 60 NM zones where seas look to range 6 to 9feet. Winds weaken by Friday with seas rapidly subsiding. /10&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 64 77 56 73 / 70 10 10 0 Pensacola 67 78 60 73 / 90 30 10 0 Destin 66 79 60 73 / 90 40 10 0 Evergreen 59 74 52 71 / 90 40 10 10 Waynesboro 59 73 54 71 / 60 10 0 0 Camden 57 70 52 68 / 90 40 10 0 Crestview 61 77 53 71 / 100 40 10 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675.&&$$
