JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 4:14 PM EDT641
FXUS63 KJKL 252014
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
414 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder and mainly dry conditions through midday Sunday.
- The next meaningful chances for rain arrive Sunday evening into
Sunday night and linger into the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation trends and
this led to no significant changes at this point. The main chance
was opting to add in some sprinkles falling from the mid level
deck this afternoon to early evening based on radar and other
recent trends. Any measurable precipitation should hold off until
tonight at the earliest and more likely 12 to 18 hours later than
that.
UPDATE Issued at 952 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Temperatures had rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s by 930 AM EDT,
ending the frost threat in all areas. Thus, the frost advisory
has cancelled early at that point. Hourly temperatures were
freshened up based on recent trends. A milder day than the past
few days is in store despite more cloud cover as return flow
begins to increase. The trend of more clouds will continue into
tonight and should keep all locations from dropping below the 40
degree mark.
UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving off to the northeast
of Kentucky. This provided a clear start to the night but high and
mid level clouds have drifting in late. The early clearing along
with light winds and dry air has led to another decent ridge to
valley temperature difference. As such, readings currently range
from the lower 40s on the hills to near 30 degrees in the
sheltered spots. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to
mid 30s. Area of frost is expected for most of the valleys and
some sub freezing temperatures for a brief time in the coldest
spots - addressed in the ongoing Frost Advisory for locations
generally east of I-75. In addition to limiting the cooling this
night, the clouds are also keeping the valley fog at bay per
satellite and obs.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a compact trough drifting east through
the Southern Plains at 5h. Downstream, this means near zonal mid
level flow through Kentucky with some weak energy passing overhead
today and into tonight. By 12Z Sunday some energy will be pushing
south toward eastern Kentucky from the departed northeast trough.
This activity aloft will combine with impulses from the
approaching western trough into Sunday evening. The very small
spread among the models still supports using the NBM as the
starting point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly just terrain driven enhancements to the hourly
temperatures this morning and a touch tonight. Did also include
some small PoPs from the CAMs guidance for tonight and Sunday.
Sensible weather features a cold and frosty start to the day, for
many places in eastern Kentucky, and a fair amount of clouds
through the day preventing temperatures from achieving their
potential. Even so, afternoon readings will end up warmer than
those of Friday by a category or two. These clouds - and a small
chance of showers through the night will keep temperatures milder
than the past several night with most places ending up no lower
than 40 degrees. Look for similar temperatures through the day on
Sunday - near normal - along with a continued small chance of a
light shower or two owing to a weak sfc trough over the area.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures this morning
and a bit tonight. the NBM PoPs were enhanced with some of the
latest CAMS guidance tonight and Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
The beginning of the long term period starts under split flow, with a
trough in the Northeast, high pressure over the Great Lakes, and a
low over Western Kentucky and Tennessee. Meanwhile, further west, a
high amplitude pattern emerges with a weak ridge over the Great
Basin and Pacific Northwest, while troughing exits over the
Northern Plains.
For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, Showers under mostly
cloudy skies and light easterly winds are expected Monday and
Tuesday, as the low over Western Kentucky and Tennessee will progress
east into the Carolinas through Tuesday. Temperatures will be below
average through the long term, with temperatures reaching the low
60s on Monday, and upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. Lows will
generally remain in the mid 40s.
During the day Tuesday, an upper level low descends down the lee side
of a ridge, exiting the Northern Plains and arriving in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Models and ensembles have this low sinking
further south and east through Wednesday, With a majority of 500-mb
height anomalies showing lowest heights southeast of Kentucky. This
would allow for rain Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be backing
from southeast to northwest Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead
to colder air advecting into the area Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will remain fairly similar in
the low to mid 50s, while lows Wednesday night are expected in the
lower 40s. As colder air filters into the region through Thursday,
850-mb temperatures in model soundings for the Black Mountain area
remain below 0C. While its raining there's a period during the
afternoon where there may be enough moisture in the dendritic growth
zone to eek out some flurries at the surface. Currently chances
remain low (<15% chance) so it was left out of the forecast. Lows
Thursday may dip into the mid to upper 30s, and will hover around
the freezing mark at Black Mountain. Clouds diminish some heading
into Friday as the low that produced rain Wednesday and Thursday
progresses off into the Northeast.
Friday and Saturday should be dry, under southwest winds and partly
cloudy skies. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the upper
50s, near 60 on Saturday. Low temperatures bottom out in the upper
30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR should prevail through the TAF period as high pressure departs
and the atmosphere gradually moistens up, alot in the mid and
upper levels first. Bands of mid and upper level clouds will move
across the region as an upper low and additional disturbances
approach. Ceilings between 8 and 12kft agl have been observed
across the region recently and should remain generally in that
range at times through the period. Some scattered clouds down to
about 5 to 6kft are also possible in bands of sprinkles or
showers. Winds will be light averaging between northeast and
east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 4:14 PM EDT---------------
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