BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:51 AM EDT352
FXUS61 KBOX 190451
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1251 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A system approaches the region on Sunday, bringing breezy southerly
winds with above-normal temperatures. The frontal system arrives
early Monday morning. A strong cold front brings a round of
gusty downpours Monday morning to mid-afternoon with temperatures
running around seasonable or slightly above normal. Drier
weather returns for Tuesday, but a stronger cold front for
Wednesday ushers in a cooler, cloudier and more unsettled
weather pattern for late in the workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The axis of the mid-level ridge pushes eastward across the region
tonight. Mid-level moisture rounding the ridge will support areas of
mid to high level clouds across the region. This will result in lows
a couple of degrees warmer than Friday night in the upper 30s to
40s. Dry conditions prevail with high pressure still in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Warmer Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
* Showers/rain arrive overnight Sunday into Monday with an
approaching system.
Details...
Sunday:
Our next system approaches from the west shifting the mid-level
ridge offshore Sunday. This will shift winds to the south with weak
warm advection into the region. Increased flow aloft and some
boundary layer mixing will bring down more enhanced winds to the
surface with some gusts up to 20 mph. Temperatures will be warmer
given the warm advection with highs rising into the upper 60s to low
70s for most areas. Slightly above normal for this time of year.
Cooler for the Cape/Islands in the mid 60s.
Sunday Night:
Moisture and clouds increase ahead of an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough Sunday night. Deterministic/ensemble models are in
agreement on the progression of the shortwave with increasing
agreement on timing details which were previously muddier. The
approaching system should put southern New England in a broad area
of lift and with a plume of above normal moisture advecting into the
region. This will support increasing rain/showers arriving from west
to east between 2 AM and sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Gusty showers Mon morning to mid-aftn with a strong cold frontal
passage, brief downpours possible. Temps in the mid 60s are
slightly above normal.
* Drier Tue but a mix of clouds and sun with seasonable temps in the
low to mid 60s.
* Another strong cold front moves in for Wed, heralding a cooler and
more unsettled weather pattern change in store for late in the
workweek. Temps by late week trend cooler on the highs with
seasonable lows.
Details:
Pretty active, changeable workweek weather-wise, with a couple of
pretty strong cold frontal passages both on Mon and again on Wed. A
deep trough then becomes established late in the week, ushering in a
cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather pattern to close out the
workweek.
Strong sfc cold front with parent 500 mb shortwave trough in western
New England early Mon AM works its through Southern New England
through the day on Mon. Cloudy and rather breezy southerly winds
precede arrival of frontal rains which move through between the
morning to mid-afternoon hours. Still have to get into the range of
the majority of the mesoscale models but period of steady rain with
perhaps some downpours accompanying what seems likely to take the
form of a "fine line" given pretty strong sfc convergence combined
with dynamic ascent from the 500 mb trough. Could be a rumble or two
of thunder with strongest shower activity but unfavorable time of
day and shallow progged instability should limit this. Flow fields
are pretty strong, with winds around 925 mb around 50-55 kt, but
strongest jetcore is locked in a shallow inversion. Pattern looks
similar to what we tend to find in late-Fall and the early-Spring
with a strongly-forced line of downpours with brief gusty winds but
limited severe weather potential. Front moves offshore mid-aftn with
cool advection occurring on blustery WSW winds, although may still
lean cloudier than not as trough aloft closes off into an upper low
for Mon evening. Rain amts are around an inch, although still some
uncertainty with this as the bulk of the rain may come within that
progged fine line of heavier downpours. We'll have to get into the
mesoscale model guidance range but either way, front should be
progressive enough that this amount of rain not likely to yield any
adverse impacts other than potentially poor commuting with reduced
visbys, especially interior Southern New England. Highs mainly low
to mid 60s under overcast/rains, and despite cold advection Mon
night, continued SW breezes support lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Brief dry weather returns on Tue, stuck between storm systems, but
with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs in the lower to mid 60s which is
around seasonable. Another strong cold front then arrives on Wed,
bringing another period of solid rain chances; while the timing is
still subject to adjustments, current indications are for a similar
timing of rains as those of Monday (morning to early afternoon).
Highs on Wed in the mid 60s.
Passage of this second cold front then ushers in a cooler and more
unsettled weather pattern change for late in the week, as deep
cyclonic flow aloft governs the Northeast states. Expect a period of
cooler, cloudier weather with perhaps a stray shower or two but not
widespread nor resulting in any washouts. 850 mb temps drop to near
zero Celsius which could bring highs in the 50s for Thu and Fri, a
little cooler than normal for late October. Nighttime lows may not
drop as far given cloud cover, with lows in the mid 40s which are
slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Today... High Confidence
VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 15-20 knots.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Increasing mid-level clouds. IFR-MVFR ceiling spread from west
to east 06z-09z. Rain may enter western MA and CT as early as
09-11z
Monday...High Confidence
Strong frontal system will bring a quick albeit heavy line of
showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Monday morning. The
line should enter western MA between 10-12z, and progress east
moving offshore by 18z. CIGS will quickly drop to IFR/LIFR with
strong SSE winds gusting up to 40 knots. Behind the line, CIGS
gradually rise to VFR for the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the
afternoon
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the
afternoon
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
High pressure tonight continuing the downward trend in seas
overnight, less than 5 ft in most spots by 12z. Winds less than
25 kts. Winds gradually flip south on Sunday and begin
increasing to 15-20 knots on Sunday. Seas remain around 3-5
feet.
Winds increase further Sunday night expanding from the southern
waters and northward. Will likely need small crafts after 00z
with winds increasing 25-30 kts overnight into Monday.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local
rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:51 AM EDT----------------
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