ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:01 PM EDT952
FXUS61 KILN 221701
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
101 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will slowly track east across the Great
Lakes into New England through the end of the week. A few showers
will be possible today, mainly across the north. Surface high
pressure of Canadian origin will build into the region for the end
of the week into this weekend. Below normal temperatures will continue
through the rest of the week, with the threat for some patchy frost
tonight and widespread frost and freezing temperatures Thursday
night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stacked low pressure to track slowly east acrs the Great Lakes today
and into New England overnight into Friday. An embedded fast-moving
mid-level disturbance moving through the long wave trough will bring
the threat for a few showers to our the far northern counties mainly
thru the evening. Cyclonic flow and favored flow off the Great Lakes
will keep clouds across the north. Surface high pressure beginning
to build into the southwest overnight will allow for decreasing
clouds.
The pressure gradient will likely keep steady westerly winds going
through the overnight hours...thus keeping frost chances low despite
temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 30s by Thursday
morning. With this said - can not rule out the potential for some patchy
frost in protected areas over the southwest late. Will issue a frost
advisory for this potential which lines up with our neighbors across
eastern Indiana/north central KY and extreme southwest Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the mid level long wave trof translates slowly east the Ohio
Valley will transition into a northwesterly flow pattern. Expect to
observe a good amount of clouds across the north Thursday where
cyclonic flow persists. Highs on Thursday will continue to be below
normal, with temperatures topping out in the middle to upper 50s.
Surface high pressure to build into the area Thursday night. Skies
will clear and winds will become light with frost chances increasing.
Along with the frost threat the possibility of freezing temperatures
will also exist. Low temperatures are forecast to be between 30 and
35. The likelihood for freezing temperatures is highest outside of
urban locations. Will issue a freeze watch for this potential
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper trough will be departing further into the NE CONUS and into
Quebec to start the period, with surface high pressure and clear
skies enabling early morning frost/freezing conditions area wide
under light winds. The region will become sandwiched between a
departing upper trough and a deepening low over the southern plains
which eventually becomes a cut off upper low over the weekend into
early next week.
For Friday, below normal temperatures and quiet weather as the
surface high extending from the western Great Lakes into the lower
Ohio Valley dominates the region. Temperatures for Friday and into
Saturday will remain below normal.
For Friday night, advancing cloud cover ahead of the southern plains
system and an eastward shift of the surface high indicate that if
frost were to occur, it would most likely be in central Ohio, with
increasing clouds and wind, along with weak WAA over the remaining
forecast area inhibiting frost formation.
For the weekend and into early next week, a pretty wide range of
solutions with the resolution/path/timing of the upper low over the
southern plains and a split flow pattern with another shortwave
wrapping through the lingering trough pattern over the Great Lakes.
Beginning to see a slight narrowing of solutions, with a slower
timing of precip onset ahead of the slowly moving lower plains
trough, but uncertainty remains regarding onset of showers between
early Sunday to Sunday night. Late Sunday into early next week,
uncertainty remains in how the split flow pattern plays out, but an
overall active pattern with rounds of showers expected, along with
slow rise back to more normal temperatures for late October with
highs in the low 60s and lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cyclonic flow continues around stacked low pressure over the Great
Lakes. This combined with cold temperatures aloft will continue to
lead to clouds between 3500-5000 feet this afternoon with the best
coverage across the north. West winds will gust up to 30 kts at times
thru the afternoon.
Clouds will begin to decrease starting this evening as high pressure
nudges in from the southwest. VFR clouds will likely linger across
the central Ohio TAF sites before scattering out late in the day
Thursday. Gusts subside this evening and west winds decrease to
around 10 kts overnight and then increase to 12-13 kts with gusts up
to 20 kts Thursday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ060-070-
077>079.
Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>099.
Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:01 PM EDT---------------
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