JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 8:51 PM EDT516
FXUS63 KJKL 230051
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
851 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A frost advisory has been issued for tonight/Thursday morning. Areas
of frost are expected to develop in valleys and other low lying
areas.
- A freeze watch has been issued for Thursday night/Friday
morning. Frost will be more widespread then, and lows are
forecast to dip below the freezing mark in the deeper and more
sheltered valleys.
- Cool and dry conditions are forecast to continue through Saturday.
- The next chances for rain will come early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
Winds have calmed from earlier this evening, allowing for some
valleys to start their temperature dropoff for the evening. Only
minor adjustments have been made to the forecast, mainly
populating the with the latest observational data and
recalculating the T/Td and wind trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low with multiple
shortwaves/disturbances rotating around it was was centered over
the Great Lakes and Ontario to Southern Quebec area with an
associated upper trough south into Southern Appalachians to
Southeast. One disturbance moving around this upper low has
worked into the eastern Great Lakes to Mid OH Valley to
Appalachians. Further to the west, an upper level ridge extended
from Mexico to the Four Corners region to the Northern Rockies.
The passing disturbance and an associated surface trough has led
to an increase in winds and gusts today as these combine with the
heating of the day to mix some of the higher momentum/stronger
winds to the surface. Meanwhile a ridge of sfc high pressure was
centered in the Lower MS Valley/Gulf states and extends into the
TN Valley and Southern Appalachians. Another ridge of high
pressure extended from the Saskatchewan and Alberta border area
into the Northern to Central Plains with a weak surface trough
between these.
Tonight and Thursday, the first disturbance and sfc trough will
depart this evening into the overnight with the surface ridge over
the Southeast nosing into eastern KY as the next sfc trough
approaches. This sfc trough and associated upper disturbance will
track across the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday and this
combined with daytime heating will lead to bit of an increase in
winds and gusts for Thursday, but to a lesser degree than today
and yesterday. Gradual height rises and the more northern sfc
ridge of high pressure moving from the Central Conus into the mid
to upper MS Valley to Appalachians follows for Thursday night.
Following lows in the mid 30s and a few instances of low 30s this
morning in the more sheltered locations mainly south of the Mtn
Pkwy and patches of frost this morning and significantly lower
dewpoints compared to 24 hours ago, colder lows tonight overall
with more coverage of frost in low lying areas and valleys is
anticipated tonight with the sfc ridge nosing back in. A Frost
Advisory is in effect from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT for the entire area.
Below normal temperatures, similar to highs today are anticipated
on Thursday, with gusts generally below 20 mph. The sfc and upper
level ridging working into the OH Valley/Commonwealth for Thursday
night is much more favorable for colder lows and areas of frost if
not widespread frost on Thursday night. Dewpoints will likely
again drop below deterministic NBM as they did today and have
trended toward lower percentile dewpoints during peak heating.
Lows at least in some valleys and low lying areas dropping to near
30. A Freeze Watch remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT late
Thursday night into Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 530 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
After a frosty start to the long term forecast period on Friday
morning, mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to recover to
near 60 degrees that afternoon. One more day of dry, northwesterly
flow aloft is anticipated as the dominant longwave troughing over
the Eastern CONUS begins to shift NE. The magnitude of said flow
will be relatively lower than it was earlier in the week, and this
corresponds to a less gusty/windy forecast on Friday. At the
surface, a high pressure system will slide directly overhead,
allowing these lighter winds to progressively veer towards the east
into Friday evening. Mixing looks less potent within this regime,
and modeled BUFKIT momentum transfer soundings depict relatively
lower wind gusts of less than 10 knots. Dewpoints should still mix
out to near/below 32 degrees on Friday afternoon, and the forecast
Td grids were accordingly blended towards lower NBM percentiles.
After the sun sets, radiational cooling should quickly take effect
in the shaded/sheltered valleys of far-eastern Kentucky, but mid-
and high-level clouds are forecast to spread across the area from
the southwest overnight. Thus, ridge/valley splits appear less
likely the closer one gets to the Lake Cumberland region. In
general, expect lows in the mid/upper-30s on Friday night. The
aforementioned climatologically-colder spots (like hollows) could
still cool down towards freezing through, and one more night of
patchy frost is possible there.
The increasing sky cover on Friday night is a part of a pattern
shift that leads to increasing rain chances towards the end of the
long term forecast period. By Saturday, the flow aloft will have
become quasi-zonal as a low pressure system emerges on the leeward
side of the Rockies in the Southern Plains. As that low wobbles
east, subtle shortwave ridging will build into the forecast area.
The resultant midlevel height rises point towards a weekend warming
trend, but overrunning moisture will lead to relatively cloudier
skies. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s this weekend, with Sunday
slightly warmer than Saturday.
The forecast has trended drier this weekend, especially given the
limited degree of low-level moisture return out ahead of the system
in the southern Plains. Persistent easterly flow on the southwestern
side of a surface anticyclone centered over the Northern
Appalachians should keep the boundary layer dry this weekend, but
some sprinkles/virga may be possible on Saturday night. Rain chances
begin to creep above the mentionable 15% threshold on Sunday night
as the southern stream system makes its way into the Tennessee
Valley. Guidance continues to de-amplify the upper level dynamics
associated with that system upon approach, and there isn't much of a
signal for thunderstorms as a result. Instead, expect periods of
light to moderate rain showers early next week as a more unsettled
weather pattern takes shape. The associated increase in cloud cover
will keep temperatures both insulated and stagnant at the end of the
period, with MaxTs in the low 60s and MinTs in the mid 40s on
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
Breezy winds will slacken overnight as sfc high pressure
strengthens its grip on the weather for eastern KY. VFR ceilings
and visibility should prevail though a few valley locations right
along the largest creeks, rivers, and area lakes could experience
a brief bit of MVFR reductions in fog a couple hours either side
of 11Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 8:51 PM EDT---------------
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