JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 12:23 AM EDT451
FXUS63 KJKL 220423
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1223 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another increase in gusts is expected during the day on
Wednesday as a surface trough ushers in colder and drier air.
- Frost is possible in valleys on Wednesday and Thursday nights,
with greater coverage on Thursday night. A few of the typical
cold spots could experience a freeze on Thursday night.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast to continue through
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A post-frontal surface trough continues to move through
southeastern Kentucky, and will take the remaining clouds with it
out of the area through the early pre-dawn hours.
Isolated to patchy frost will be possible where winds subside and
allow for the most optimal radiational cooling, which is most
likely in the southwestern quadrant of our CWA. A 35-degree
reading has already been observed last hour at the KY Mesonet
station in Cumberland County.
UPDATE Issued at 932 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
Increased Sky grids for the next few hours in association with a
post-frontal surface trough moving east across the area through
the remainder of this evening, with a subsequent downward trend
after midnight with skies clearing behind this feature. Otherwise,
just updated the latest hourly T/Td hourly grids, with no major
changes to the overall forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 656 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
The forecast is on track with no major changes. Gusty winds should
gradually subside with the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
Late this afternoon an upper level low was moving across the
western Great Lakes with the axis of the 500 mb trough extending
into the Lower OH Valley to Southeast. A shortwave moving around
this upper low was nearing the Lower OH Valley. Further west, an
upper level ridge extended from Mexico into the Pacific Northwest
to BC. A shortwave trough was upstream of the upper level low
extending across Saskatchewan and moving around the upper level
ridging and into the troughing in the Great Lakes to eastern
Conus. At the surface, the cold front that crossed the region
through midday has move east of eastern KY with a sfc trough
preceding the initial upstream shortwave that is nearing the Lower
OH Valley. Further west, a sfc ridge extended through the Plains.
Winds have gusted near and behind the front into the 20 to 30 mph
range with cumulus having also developed across the area.
Tonight and Wednesday, the first upstream shortwave rotating
around the upper level low and through the OH Valley during the
evening into the early part of the overnight before a surface high
pressure ridge noses into the TN Valley and eastern KY late. The
next upstream impulse rotating into the trough and around the
upper level low will arrive from the west by late Wednesday
morning and cross the region through the afternoon. A sfc
trough/cold front will trek across the region in advance of this
impulse and usher in a colder and drier airmass. Surface high
pressure should nose into the region to end the period.
Cumulus clouds should generally decrease in coverage toward
sunset this evening, but a band of mid level clouds should work
across the region this evening with the initial shortwave. Skies
should clear late tonight with some decrease in winds. A few of
the more sheltered locations in the south and west could
experience some patchy frost. Otherwise, within a couple of hours
after the sun comes up on Wednesday, winds and gusts should once
again increase and gusts into the 20 to 30 mph should again occur
as the next impulse and sfc trough crosses. Highs will be below
normal for Wednesday. Winds should again eventually slacken on
Wednesday night and some of the deeper valleys could experience
the first frost of the season. Greater coverage of frost is
forecast early in the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 522 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
For the first two days of the long term forecast period, the area
will remain under the influence of broad longwave troughing over
much of the Eastern CONUS. Eastern Kentucky's positioning on the
backside of that trough's axis means that we will be in a regime of
northwesterly flow aloft. The resultant dry air advection favors a
mostly clear sensible weather forecast on Thursday, and the
proximity of a surface high pressure system further favors efficient
diurnal processes towards the start of the period.
During the daytime hours, this means that the previous night's
radiational cooling inversion will mix out as the sun warms the
boundary layer. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures should
quickly recover into the 50s by midday. However, afternoon highs
will be relegated to the lower half of the 60s by persistent low-
level dry/cool air advection via westerly winds. Sustained winds
will likely be less potent than the day prior, but BUFKIT momentum
transfer soundings still demonstrate the potential for westerly wind
gusts up to 20 mph during peak diurnal mixing on Thursday afternoon.
That mixing will likely dip dewpoint temperatures down to near or
below 32 degrees before sunset. This, combined with the mostly clear
skies and calm winds in the forecast after sunset, points towards
widespread frost potential overnight into Friday morning. Once the
sun goes down, radiational cooling should quickly take effect in the
shaded/sheltered valleys of Eastern Kentucky. Temperatures are
poised to bottom out below the freezing mark in the climatologically
coolest valleys, but much of the area will experience low
temperatures in the 33-36 degree range on Thursday night. The warmer
ridgetops (lows near 40) and locations near warmer bodies of water
(like the Cumberland River) could be relatively insulated from frost
formation, but frost headline products may need to be considered for
this time frame in future forecast packages. A freeze cannot be
ruled out in the deepest valleys, and the Weather Prediction Center
continues to outline much of the forecast area with frost/freeze
potential in its Hazards Outlook for the morning of October 24th.
Regardless of headline product issuance, agricultural and
recreational interests with sensitive plants should consider
taking any necessary protective actions on Thursday
afternoon/evening.
Friday's forecast looks similar to Thursday's, although a pattern
shift will begin to unfold. The aforementioned surface high will
slide northeast across the area on Friday, and the upper troughing
will propagate slightly further to the east. This leads to the
persistence of dry NW flow aloft for one more day, but veering winds
towards the east at the surface. After a frosty morning, mostly
clear skies should allow temperatures to rebound to the low/mid 60
degrees on Friday afternoon. Increasing cloud coverage on Friday
evening as the pattern shifts further will limit the magnitude of
overnight radiational cooling, although some sheltered valleys in
far eastern and northeastern Kentucky could still cool down to the
lower 30s. Otherwise, expect MinTs in the mid 30s to near 40 on
Friday night.
Forecast confidence decreases this weekend, as the various pieces of
available forecast guidance are resolving the aforementioned pattern
shift quite differently. Overall, the pattern looks relatively
wetter and warmer compared to the workweek, although significant
questions regarding the magnitude of upper level dynamic support and
the quality of low-level moisture return reduce forecast confidence.
The guidance suite collectively resolves leeward cyclogenesis off
the Rockies as an upper level trough ejects into the Southern
Plains. The flow over the commonwealth is projected to become quasi-
zonal on Saturday, but guidance diverges on Sunday. Some solutions
show the area in split flow; some resolve shortwave ridging. At the
surface, winds stay out of the east-southeast, leading to poor low-
level moisture return. Guidance has collectively trended towards a
slower ejection of this first system, and thus the forecast has
trended drier on Saturday. On Sunday, overrunning moisture ahead of
the surface low and its warm frontal boundary could yield rain
showers, but the deamplification of the mid/upper level features and
the antecedent dryness in the lower levels will limit QPF. The best
rain chances will likely remain further to the south in the
Tennessee Valley. Despite the demonstrated model spread, there is a
pretty good signal for a modest warming trend this weekend, with
midlevel height rises and less meridional flow aloft. Thus, the
baseline NBM guidance of highs in the mid/upper 60s and lows in the
mid 40s appears reasonable. Expect cloudier, but relatively milder
conditions this weekend, at least relative to the work week.
The overarching synoptic pattern looks to remain on the more active
side of things early next week. There is a signal for deeper
troughing to develop over the Plains on Tuesday, and lower-level
flow should shift towards the south in this time frame on the
backside of the weakening weekend system. Such a set-up supports
increasing rain chances at the very end of the forecast period, but
diverging model solutions beyond Tuesday preclude the mention of
sensible weather specifics at this moment in time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A cold front has departed the region to the east, but the
energetic parent upper trough will reside overhead through the 00z
Wednesday - 00z Thursday TAF period. The main impact will be a
light and generally steady westerly wind through the night,
followed by an increase in winds and wind gusts during the late
morning through late afternoon hours Wednesday, with max gusts in
the afternoon approaching 25 kts in some areas. VFR conditions
are expected through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 12:23 AM EDT---------------
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