IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:04 AM EDT222
FXUS63 KIWX 190704
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
304 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will be heavy at times, especially early today.
- An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Severe weather is not
expected.
- Turning much colder during the middle of this week with frost
likely and freezing temperatures possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
A large area of rain was spreading north into northern Indiana. The
heaviest rain from this area is expected to fall east of where the
heaviest rain fell earlier last night. Rainfall amounts of more than
an inch in less then an hour will likely bring the potential for some
brief, localized urban flooding today.
An upper level trof was beginning to become negatively tilted from
the Upper Midwest to west of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Mid level
winds on the back side of the upper level trof were expected to
become very strong near the base of the trof with GFS forecast
wind speed overs 110 kts. A strong cold front associated with
this system will move east across the area today and bring
gusty winds. Current thinking is winds will stay below advisory
criteria with the stronger sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph
with some gusts reaching 40 mph, especially near Lake Michigan.
After a brief respite from the windy conditions Monday, wind
gusts from 25 to 35 mph are likely again Tuesday afternoon with
the passage of another cold front. The air behind this system
will be the coldest so far this fall season. Early morning lows
by Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Strong midlevel trough is now approaching the area with
widespread rain and a few isolated, embedded storms. This will
continue through roughly 09Z but KFWA has a much better chance
of isolated storms in that window. KFWA may also see some strong
wind gusts associated with the surface frontal passage arriving
around 10Z. Both TAF sites will see rain with ceilings hovering
around 1 kft (beginning at KFWA around 09Z) through the late
morning. Light showers and MVFR ceilings will then continue
through much of the day along with gusty northwest winds. Return
to VFR and lighter winds expected around 00Z Sunday evening as
high pressure returns.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:04 AM EDT---------------
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