IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 6:12 AM EDT214
FXUS63 KIND 191012
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
612 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers through early to mid afternoon today
- Much cooler with wind gusts peaking at 30 to 35 mph throughout
today
- Seasonably cool temperatures for much of the upcoming week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
The narrow convective line carrying the risk for near severe level
wind gusts has shifted east of the forecast area with a prefrontal
trough. Rain lingered further west with the cold front just now
approaching the Wabash Valley at 06Z. Temperatures remained in the
low and mid 60s.
Low pressure continues to deepen over the forecast area early this
morning and will track northeast quickly through daybreak. The cold
front will move across the area over the next 6 hours with a
trailing surface trough following through the first half of the day.
These two features will maintain scattered to numerous showers
through early to mid afternoon with drying thereafter as broad
surface ridging builds in tonight.
As mentioned above...the narrow convective line carrying the risk
for brief spinups and damaging winds has shifted east of the
forecast area and was largely disorganized as it crossed the
southeast half of the forecast area between 03 and 06Z. There is a
brief break in the rain behind this line with additional showers
moving into the Wabash Valley in tandem with the cold front. These
will pivot east across the forecast area through the predawn hours
with additional showers through the first half of the day as the
upper trough axis and a trailing surface trough swing through the
region. Rainfall rates will be lighter with the potential for an
additional quarter to half inch through this afternoon.
Wind gusts to this point have been manageable with nothing higher
than 30-35mph over the last few hours. While winds will remain gusty
and increase through the morning as cold advection establishes
behind the front...am highly skeptical of advisory criteria being
met over the eastern half of the forecast area other than a
localized stronger gust. Current CAMs guidance suggests the best
chance to see near advisory level winds will remain to the southeast
of the forecast area through 12Z. Will let the headline ride for a
bit but am strongly considering an early cancellation to the Wind
Advisory by 08-09Z should gusts not tick up.
With the frontal passage...temperatures will drop into the lower and
mid 50s through midday and the addition of wind gusts up to 35mph
and periodic wind whipped rain will make for an unpleasant and raw
first half of the day. Rain will end from west to east through the
afternoon with gradual clearing late day as drier air advects into
the region. Skies will fully clear this evening as deep subsidence
arrives with westerly winds diminishing.
Temps...non-diurnal curve in play today as temperatures will fall
into the lower and mid 50s through midday in wake of the frontal
passage. Expect some recovery in temperatures as rain ends and
clouds begin to scatter later this afternoon but it will remain
cool. Clearing skies and winds becoming light as surface ridging
arrives will set the stage for a chilly night. Lows by Monday
morning will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Quiet weather is expected to start the work week with upper ridging
and surface pressure over the region. Increasing southwesterly ahead
of an approaching system will help to warm up temperatures, but
seasonal highs are still expected. The pressure gradient tightening
up during the day combined with diurnal mixing will promote breezy
conditions. Wind gusts around 20-30 mph are expected. Higher gusts
approaching 35 mph cannot be ruled out over far northwestern
counties.
Marginal moisture return ahead of the system will limit rain chances
Monday night to around 20-30% and should keep any rainfall amounts
light. Precipitation chances are also mostly limited to areas north
of I-70 where models depict slightly stronger forcing. An associated
cold front will provide another shot of cooler air. This combined
with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS through the
end of the week should keep temperatures below normal.
Quiet weather is expected to return Tuesday through Thursday as
drier air filters in. Persistent breezy west-northwesterly flow will
allow for temperatures to trend cooler Wednesday and Thursday. There
is potential for frost once winds relax Wednesday night. Lows are
likely going to fall into the mid 30s. Surface high pressure
building overhead Thursday night suggest even colder lows near or
below freezing are possible.
Guidance depicts another system moving in towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Uncertainty increases by this point due
to diverging model solutions, but at least modest forcing and
available moisture supports low rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 612 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Impacts:
- Scattered to numerous showers through early to mid afternoon
- Wind gusts peaking at 30-35kts at times through much of the day
- MVFR ceilings into this afternoon with improvements thereafter
Discussion:
Heavier rainfall and the cold front are east of the terminals early
this morning with gusty westerly winds ongoing. Scattered to
numerous showers will persist through early to mid afternoon before
ending from west to east. Visibility restrictions are possible at
times with the showers and MVFR stratus will remain into the
afternoon. Lower clouds will gradually scatter from the west by late
today as progressively drier air advects in W/NW winds will gust up
to 30-35kts through the afternoon then gradually decrease as surface
ridging builds in from the west.
Skies will clear by this evening with winds backing to westerly and
lightening to less than 10kts.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for INZ039>042-047>049-
054>057-062>065-070>072.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 6:12 AM EDT---------------
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