IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 3:41 AM EDT993
FXUS63 KIWX 160848 AAA
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
341 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Decreasing clouds today and remaining cool albeit slightly
warmer than yesterday.
- Trending warmer Friday and Saturday.
- Breezy this weekend with a 70% to 80% chance of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Ridging over the central CONUS will continue building north and
westward today. Decreasing clouds from the northeast moving
slowly southwestward over the area today as the anticyclonic
flow over the building ridge to our west allows for drier air to
push in from the northeast before mid and high level debris
clouds from the next incoming system begins increasing later
tonight with the arrival of the ridge flow. High temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs mainly in
the upper 60s. A few areas to the southwest will get into the
lower 70s.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer on Friday and
Saturday, with highs in the 70s on Friday and in the upper 70s
to low 80s on Saturday, ahead of a pretty dynamic trough that
will push southeastward into the region originating from the
Gulf of Alaska. Breezy conditions with rain and thunderstorms are on
tap Saturday into Sunday. Instability and directional shear related
to the front could spur an isolated severe storm or two. The SPC
currently has a majority of our CWA under a marginal severe threat
for Saturday. On Sunday afternoon, winds will peak with gusts up to
around 30 to 35 mph possible behind the cold front and colder
airmass advecting into the area. Highs on Sunday will only get into
the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows on Monday morning will be in the
lower 40s. These cooler temperatures will stick around through next
week with periods of rain showers with troughing setting up
residence over the Great Lakes region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites, with the stratus
deck that was impacting the terminals (currently BKN/OVC
3500-4500ft) continues to slowly sink southwestward. As
mentioned in the previous discussion this stratus could rebuild
late tonight once flow veers ahead of next system-but
confidence is fairly low with dry air still filtering in from
the northeast. Maintained the previous forecast for now, but
will amend if trends suggest the stratus rebuilding.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 3:41 AM EDT---------------
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