MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 12:48 PM CDT ...New Aviation...202
FXUS64 KMOB 091748
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Now through Wednesday...
A strong upper level shortwave dives into a mean upper trough over
the East Coast into Friday. A cold front that has moved to near the
northern Gulf Coast moves offshore into Thursday, with drier, cooler
airmass moving south over the forecast area in response. Enough
moisture and dynamics from the passing shortwave will help to
develop a few showers and thunderstorms over areas southeast of I-65
today, shifting offshore tonight as drier air moves south over the
forecast area. A developing surface low off the Florida Atlantic
coast Friday into the weekend will help to slow down the influx of
drier air temporarily as Atlantic moisture moves inland over the
Southeast on the north side of the low. As the low moves north along
the coast Saturday on, dry northerly low level flow is enhanced for
the rest of the weekend. A surface ridge moves over the forecast
area and nearby early in the coming week, keeping the dry airmass in
place through the rest of the forecast. Not to forget, an upper high
centered over Texas meanders a bit east to varying extents in the
guidance, leading to a spread in temperatures in the guidance in the
coming week.
Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal high temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s Thursday, drop below seasonal for Friday (upper
70s over the northeastern half of the forecast area to low 80s over
the southwest). From there, temperatures moderate upwards, into the
mid to upper 80s by Tuesday as the upper high approaches from west.
Low temperatures see the same dip the end of the week, from low/mid
60s north of Highway 84 to low 70s along the coast Wednesday night
to well below seasonal low to mid 50s over most of the forecast area
Saturday night. From there, low temperatures see an uptick of a few
degrees the rest of the forecast.
Moderate easterly flow will work with an increasing tidal cycle to
keep a Moderate to at times High Risk of Rip currents into Saturday.
Winds shift to more northeast over the weekend, with the Rip Risk
dropping to Low by Sunday.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A
few isolated showers, or possibly a thunderstorm, may develop
later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Northerly to
northeasterly winds of around 5 to 10 knots, with occasional gusts
to 20 knots, will be possible through the period, especially along
the coast. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Moderate to strong offshore flow will follow a cold front
moving offshore into Thursday. Winds will ease and become more
variable in the coming week as a surface ridge moves over the area.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 81 59 83 56 83 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 65 81 62 83 61 82 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 65 81 63 84 62 82 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 59 82 53 85 51 86 54 89 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 61 80 55 82 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 59 79 55 82 53 83 55 86 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 61 81 56 84 53 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through
Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through
Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday
for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 12:48 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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