JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:45 AM EDT160
FXUS63 KJKL 110545 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry weather pattern with mostly sunny days and mainly clear
nights will persist through the weekend and into next week.
- Temperatures will gradually warm to slightly above normal early
next week, with highs approaching the upper 70s on Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
UPDATE Issued at 1135 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
Some patches of clouds near 5 to 6kft linger beneath passing
cirrus. Otherwise, dewpoint depressions, especially in valleys
have narrowed and there has been some fog in the past half hour at
the Powell County KY Mesonet site though that appears to have
cleared in recent imagery. At least patchy valley fog should
continue to develop over the next couple of hours and this may
become dense in spots near the largest creeks, rivers, and area
lakes overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 815 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation trends. This
led to no substantial changes at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
Eastern Kentucky is basking under bright mid-October afternoon
sunshine at mid-afternoon. After a chilly morning with
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid-40s, temperatures have
surged into the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower elevations.
The latest surface analysis shows the surface high responsible for
our cool but pleasant weather is now centered off Long Island.
Behind it, an ~1012 mb surface low is situated north of Lake
Superior, with an associated cold front trailing southwest through
the Upper Peninsula of Michigan/Wisconsin to southern Kansas.
Southerly flow between the departing high and approaching cool
front is ushering higher low-level moisture levels this
afternoon -- dew points have climbed into the upper 40s to mid
50s across much of the area. Aloft, 500 hPa ridging remains
prominent over the High Plains, but to its east, a potent northern
stream shortwave is closing off into a low over the Great Lakes
as ridging over the Northeastern CONUS breaks down. It is also
worth noting that a very weak cyclonic circulation exists in the
upper levels near/over Georgia.
Through the short term, the 500 hPa ridge axis over the High
Plains will shift east and tilt positively, while the upper low
over the Great Lakes weakens and settles over New York, beginning
to interact with the energy over the Southeast US. As a result,
the surface cold front will drop southeast into the Lower Ohio
Valley and dissipate. Despite the renewed low-level moisture,
dry northerly flow in the mid to upper levels will keep PWATs
generally less than 0.75 inches. As a result, little more than
some patchy clouds are expected at times through the period. Fog
formation is also likely each night under a favorable radiational
cooling environment.
In terms of sensible weather, temperatures will peak in the low
to mid-70s this afternoon under fair skies. Temperatures will drop
quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating; however,
higher dew points will provide a floor for overnight lows, which
will range from the mid-40s in sheltered valleys to the low 50s
on thermal belt ridges. Fog, locally dense, can be expected in the
favored valley locales. Looking ahead to Saturday, tranquil
weather will continue with high temperatures once again returning
to the lower to middle 70s under mostly sunny skies. Looking ahead
to Saturday night, clear to partly cloudy skies persist with lows
once again in the mid 40s to low 50s. Fog formation is once again
probable in the most favored valley locales, though a slightly
stronger gradient flow should keep coverage more limited compared
to Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 523 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Confidence is high that seasonably dry and pleasant conditions will
persist across Eastern Kentucky through the end of the long term
forecast period. The forecast guidance suite agrees that much of
this time frame will be dominated by atmospheric ridging and
northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, the region
will be situated between an Atlantic coastal low and building high
pressure. A cold front may approach the area by mid-week, but it is
likely to lack mid/upper level dynamic support. Guidance resolves
its parent features quickly ejecting up into Canada by Wednesday,
leaving the the cold front with only weak forcing upon approach.
Persistent north-northeasterly surface flow in the first part of the
period will keep this frontal passage dry, and its sensible weather
impacts will be accordingly limited to a minor cooldown.
Given the aforementioned model consensus, the baseline NBM data used
to populate the long term forecast grids appears reasonable. The
synoptic-scale ridging at play favors mostly clear skies, an early
week warming trend, and efficient diurnal processes. On Sunday, a
few clouds may stream around the extreme western periphery of the
coastal system into Eastern Kentucky, but increasing subsidence and
dry northerly flow ahead of the building midlevel ridge should
prohibit precipitation chances. Skies should clear out early on in
the work week, allowing for strong diurnal warming/cooling. Expect
highs to creep up from the mid 70s on Sunday towards the upper 70s
on Tuesday, with overnight lows dependent upon elevation. The cooler
valleys will stay in the 40s, with warmer ridgetops in the low 50s.
Radiational valley fog remains likely to develop each night, but the
persistent dryness may progressively reduce the spatial coverage of
the fog by late next week. In the wake of the dry midweek frontal
passage, high temperatures should cool into the upper 60s, with
widespread lows in the 40s.
These conditions are near climatological averages for mid-October in
Eastern Kentucky, and October is known as the dry season here.
Looking into the extended forecast period, it is plausible that
Eastern Kentucky will not see measurable rain through the end of the
next work week. This will lead to drying soils and increasing fuels
with little to no relief in sight. While the past week's rainfall
provided some relief, fire weather interests are encouraged to pay
close attention to local burn guidance and to check future fire
weather forecast updates as this drier pattern emerges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at issuance time with
some patches of clouds around 5 to 6 kft agl in addition to
passing high clouds. VFR should dominate through the period as
high pressure departs and a weakening boundary drops into the
area. Extensive valley fog formation is expected after the 06 to
08Z timeframe with IFR to LIFR in some valley locations with it
probable for some of the fog to lift into many of the TAF sites
at least briefly toward 12Z. There is some uncertainty as to the
duration and extent of visibility reductions of this at the
individual TAF site. Light and variable winds will prevail through
the period, as well.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:45 AM EDT---------------
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