BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:50 PM EDT572
FXUS61 KBOX 041750
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
150 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure in control of our weather will continue to
bring dry and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures through
Tuesday. A cold front moves through Southern New England Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing some much needed rainfall. Much
cooler/drier weather follows for Thursday and Friday with
temperatures averaging a bit below normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Clear tonight...Lows mainly in the upper 40s and 50s
* Patchy ground fog in the typically prone locations late
Details...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will result in a dry/tranquil
night with above normal temperatures. Light winds will allow for
decent radiational cooling...so overnight low temps will range from
the upper 40s in the normally coolest spots to generally 50s
elsewhere. Meanwhile...the Urban Heat Island of Boston will be the
mild spot only drop into the lower 60s.
We probably will see some patchy ground fog late in the typically
prone low-lying locations...but not expecting anything
widespread.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Sunny & unseasonably warm Sunday with highs mainly 80-85 except
middle to upper 70s along parts of the immediate coast
* Mostly clear Sunday night with lows mainly in the upper 40s & 50s
Details...
Sunday...
Upper level ridging in place will result in well above normal height
fields and another unseasonably warm day on Sunday. 850T near
+14C/+15C along with sunshine should push high temps into the 80-85
in most locations away from the immediate coast. Weak gradient will
result in sea breeze development along portions of the very
immediate coast and hold highs in the middle to upper 70s in those
locations. Regardless...another beautiful day is on tap for all of
southern New England with light winds and well above normal temps.
Sunday night...
A ridge of high pressure to our south will continue our tranquil/dry
weather with above normal temperatures. Low temps Sunday night
should range from the upper 40s in the normally coolest outlying
locations to generally the 50s elsewhere. The Urban Heat Island of
Boston will again be the mild spot with low temps only dropping into
the lower 60s.
Another round of patchy ground fog is expected late in the typically
prone low-lying locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather thru Tue.
Increased southerly breezes could lead to fire weather
concerns Mon and especially on Tue.
* Welcomed rainfall either late Tue night or Wed as a cold front
moves in. Thunder possible.
* Much cooler, blustery and dry Thu/Fri with highs in the 50s to
lower 60s; possible frost Thu night.
Details:
Monday and Tuesday:
High pressure to our south then starts to slowly migrate to our
southeastern waters, allowing for a strengthening SWly pressure
gradient to take shape. Above normal temperatures are still expected
on both days, although cloud cover starts to increase later Tue/Tue
night as a strong cold front begins to approach interior western New
England. SWly winds will keep seabreezes from developing; while RH's
will be running a little higher than we've seen recently, the dry
ground combined with the SWly winds could pose concerns for fire
weather on both days, but especially Tue as SWly winds may gust up
to 30 mph. Nighttime lows also could be quite a bit warmer than
climatology too given the SWly winds, and could stay above 60
degrees in several spots.
Wednesday:
A cold front will be moving through Southern New England around Wed;
some question on timing as a few more progressive solutions show
cold frontal rains moving in as soon as Tue night but think Wed is
more likely given the amplified 500 mb pattern (front-parallel mid-
level flow shown in most model systems). This will bring a welcomed
rain and perhaps some timing-dependent t-storms too given advection
of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Ensemble QPF probs seem to have
increased compared to prior cycles, with moderate (40-60%) probs of
rain amts of at least a half inch, and if we do see any t-storms,
then the risk for localized downpours could develop given anomalous
moisture plume (PWATs around 1.5"). Cloudy and cooler highs in the
lower to mid 70s.
Thursday and Friday:
Strong 1030+ mb high pressure then begins to build in for Thurs,
ushering in blustery and well-mixed conditions on Thurs to go along
with cooler temps. 925 mb temps off the GFS are down to the lower
single digits Celsius, which could keep highs in the mid 50s to
lower/mid 60s Thurs, to go along with northerly breezes. A chilly,
frosty Thurs night looks likely away from the coast as winds slacken
and strong cooling takes place. So, late week takes a turn back to
mid-autumn.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon through Sunday night...High confidence.
VFR conditions continue through Sunday night outside of localized
very late night/early morning patchy ground fog in the typically
prone locations. Winds will be calm to light under 10 knots with
some localized diurnal sea breezes across portions of the immediate
coast.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Another round of sea breezes
expected for late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence.
A ridge of high pressure anchored to our south will continue to
result in relatively light winds and flat seas through Sunday night.
No marine headlines will be needed. We will have to watch for some
fog developing over the southern waters...mainly late Sunday
night.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...
Sunday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto
MARINE...Frank/Loconto
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:50 PM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
