BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 1:13 PM EDT822
FXUS61 KBOX 011713
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
113 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Despite full sunshine, today is a cooler day to go along with
enhanced northeast winds. Gusts could reach as high as 40 mph
across the Cape and Islands today. High surf and rip currents
are expected today as southerly swells impact the coast. A cool
and dry airmass tonight will favor a rather chilly night tonight
except for the southeast coast. Above to well above normal
temperatures are then expected by the weekend which continues
into early next week. Dry weather is expected to prevail through
early next week, with our next chance for rainfall not
anticipated until the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM Update:
Key Message:
* Mostly sunny, but with enhanced north to northeast breezes,
especially for southeast coastal New England.
* Cooler than normal with highs upper 50s to the mid 60s, with the
wind making it feel cooler.
* Large breaking waves for most of the Southern New England coast
will produce high surf and dangerous rip currents (although not
ideal beach weather).
Details:
A ridge of high pressure extends southeast into much of
Southern New England early this morning from a large 1030+ mb
high pressure over western Quebec. This is supplying dry
subsidence into Southern New England, and will also advect in a
cool and dry autumn airmass. This high pressure feature, in
conjunction with the passing circulation associated with
Humberto well southeast of 40N/70W, is now beginning to tighten
a NE pressure gradient. Though it was a little more delayed,
we're now starting to see some enhanced northeast winds develop
over eastern and southeast New England. Recent NE gusts out
across the Cape and Islands have been as high as 30 mph, with
more of a sustained NE wind around 10-15 mph for the RI/MA
coastal plain.
We have a couple of headlines/products currently in effect for
today. One is a SPS to bring awareness to elevated fire weather
concerns for interior MA for today. Mixing of a dry airmass
combined with full sun and some breezes to around 20 mph
(lighter than along the immediate coast) will dry out soils.
This was coordinated with state fire and land management
officials. Input from fire weather partners in CT and RI
indicate conditions are more borderline/not as sensitive given
some rain from late last week. The second is a high surf
advisory for the entirety of the Southern New England coastline,
which runs through 8 PM this evening. Today is really going to
be far from an ideal beach day with cooler than normal
temperatures and enhanced northeast breezes blowing beach sand
around. With 7 to 12 ft breaking waves at longer periods
affecting our coasts today, and with surrounding offices having
surf headlines in effect, we opted to issue one for a more
regionally-consistent message. In reality, the hazard probably
comes more from people potentially viewing the surf out on
jetties and rocks, but for those who might venture out into the
water, despite what's otherwise not ideal beach weather, be
aware that there is a high risk for dangerous rip currents.
Today is otherwise a sunny and breezy to gusty day, with the
highest northeast wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph across the Cape
and Islands. 925 mb temps will be falling through the day to
around +5 to +7C associated with the cool airmass advecting in;
so the combo of this with the northeast breezes will offset
diurnal warming. The net result is a cooler than normal day,
especially near the eastern coast. Highs should reach into the
lower to mid 60s for interior Southern New England, but near the
eastern coasts, temps may struggle to climb to 60 degrees and
the stiff onshore flow will make it feel cooler than that.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* NE breezes continue with some clouds tonight for southeast New
England and the Cape/Islands, but a chilly night for interior
Southern New England (mid 30s-near 40). Patchy frost possible in
northwest MA.
* Still cooler than normal for Thurs (low to mid 60s highs), but
full sun and easing northeast winds.
Details:
Tonight:
Large high pressure over Quebec will continue to build
southeast into far northern New England by morning. With light
winds, clear skies and a very dry airmass, it favors optimal
radiational cooling for most of interior Southern New England.
At the same time, it will still be quite a bit breezy for
southeast New England, the Cape and the Islands, but wind gusts
should be easing to around 20-30 mph for these areas. There may
also be some landward advection of cold air stratocumulus clouds
in the NE flow over southeast coastal New England, with the
winds and the cloud cover likely to attenuate stronger nighttime
cooling. The net effect more than likely ends up to quite a
contrast in low temps for this evening; ranging from the mid 50s
out over the Cape and Islands, around the mid 40s from the RI-
MA coastal plain/Metrowest, and into the mid to upper 30s/spot
40 for interior Southern New England.
Temperatures in northwest MA and northern Worcester County are
cold enough to support patchy frost, which is reflected in the
forecast; however with the median date of the first freeze
(October 1st) having passed for these areas, have refrained from
frost headlines. Those with hanging plants and crops sensitive
to cold temperatures in northern and western interior MA should
still take the necessary precautions to prevent damage from a
light frost.
Thursday and Thursday Night:
The high pressure area will continue to build through New
England on Thurs, and eventually settle offshore just south of
Southern New England for Thursday night. Expect decreasing NE
winds toward light winds by late afternoon, to go along with
full sun and dry weather. Highs still end up slightly below
normal in the lower to middle 60s. Should see better radiational
cooling in all areas of Southern New England Thurs night, but
neutral to weak warm advection Thurs night should keep temps
closer to the upper 30s to the middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Protracted dry weather continues, with our next chance for rain
not anticipated until the middle of next week.
* Above to well above normal temps for the weekend into early next
week, potentially into the mid 80s this weekend.
Details:
Global models/ensembles appear little changed from prior forecasts
for this forecast period. The main story being a steady warm-up in
temperatures to go along with several days of dry weather as high
pressure remains anchored south of Southern New England. In fact we
may see temperatures reach into the mid 80s in some locations this
weekend, which are some 10-15 degrees warmer than normal. While
winds are generally on the lighter-southerly side, the lack of
rainfall, autumn leaf-drop and the warm temps and full sun could
lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Our next chance for
rainfall may not materialize until Wed, associated with a
modeled strong cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Through 00Z...High Confidence
VFR. FEW to SCT stratocu around 030-040. Gusty northeast winds
easing through 00Z.
Tonight: High confidence.
Mainly VFR SKC. Potential for periods of low-end VFR/MVFR bases
from ocean-effect stratocumulus for Cape/Islands and perhaps to
PVD after 04z. Mainly light north winds for the interior (calm
at times). Gradual decrease in NE winds for eastern/southeast
airports, though gusts around 25 kts still over the Cape and
Islands.
Thursday: High confidence.
VFR, steadily decreasing NE wind speeds to become 10 kt or
less by late-afternoon, with light/calm winds for the interior.
Thursday Night... High confidence.
VFR. Winds shifting to light out of the west under high
pressure.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today and Tonight: High confidence.
A tightening pressure gradient and cooler air over the milder
ocean waters will allow for increased northeast winds today and
tonight. Gale warnings remain in effect adjacent to the Cape
and Islands through Wed night. NE gusts continue to increase to
around 35 kt in the Gale Warning area. Elsewhere, SCAs are in
effect for most of the remaining waters, with gusts around 25-30
kt. Seas will be building to 7-12 ft over the outer waters, and
around 4-6 ft nearshore.
Thursday and Thursday Night: High confidence.
Decreasing NE winds into Thurs, becoming light northeasterly by
Thurs afternoon and continuing into the evening. Seas will still
likely remain elevated enough to support SCAs, though the trend
will be for gradually lowering seas.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015-
016-019>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-256.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/RM
MARINE...Loconto
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 1:13 PM EDT----------------
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