ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 12:00 PM EDT829
FXUS61 KILN 051600
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1200 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions continue through Monday morning. Rain
chances develop by Tuesday when a cold front moves through the Ohio
Valley. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front for the middle and
end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure remains centered east of the Ohio Valley.
Warm, dry conditions persist this afternoon through tonight along
with light southerly flow. Forecast lows tonight drop into the upper
50s to near 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure slowly drifts further east of the Ohio Valley
on Monday. Upper level ridging also remains in place as it slowly
flattens. Lack of forcing and weak moisture return keep rain chances
low on Monday although a few spotty showers are possible during the
day according to the latest CAM guidance. Southerly winds help spike
highs into the low to middle 80s despite increasing moisture and
cloud cover.
On Monday night, the ridge continues to flatten and a cold front
begins approaches the area from the northwest. Higher PWATs arrive
late overnight/early Tuesday morning ahead of the front. Widespread
rain is likely to develop late with the arrival of better moisture
and forcing after midnight. Better rain chances exist northwest of I-
71 prior to sunrise before overspreading to the southeast ahead of
the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An abnormally odd start to the long term period with the likelihood
of widespread wet conditions across the area for the first time in a
couple of weeks. A weak system moving northward out of the Gulf
Coast will combine with deep troughing over the Midwest Monday night
into Tuesday. This combination supports the widespread rainfall
chances, with the southern system introducing more abundant deep
moisture. So while the trough across the Midwest would have likely
resulted in some rainfall chances, the added moisture supports the
potential for some modest rainfall accumulations. Current NBM
probabilities for 24-hour rainfall amounts of greater than 1" are
between 40-60% area wide with the highest probabilities within the
greater Tri-State area, northern Kentucky, and southern Ohio. The
lowest chances are in west-central Ohio and eastern Indiana.
Confidence is fairly high that the trough axis quickly swings
through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, drying out and cooling down
the region heading into Wednesday and Thursday. Surface high
pressure persists over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS during
these days. Expect high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
much closer to seasonal normals for early October. The high pressure
has its greatest contribution to nighttime low temperatures
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Generally, temperatures in
the 40s are forecast for Thursday morning, but along and north of
the I-70 corridor likely sees upper 30s.
Friday through Sunday, the upper jet stream pattern begins to become
more stagnant as a closed off low pressure settles beneath a
building ridge over the Great Lakes and southern Canada.
Temperatures are steady through the final days of the long term
period given this pattern, with scattered cloudiness each day due to
moisture associated with the low pressure. Rainfall chances are
currently too low for a mention at this range. For now, the specific
details of this forecast are made with low confidence. One of the
ways to see this low confidence within the NBM is that current
spreads for high and low temperatures are upwards of 6 to 10 degrees
different across the ensemble. The exact placement of the low
pressure and the associated cloud cover will vary the daily
temperatures significantly. If the low pressure is farther south,
daytime highs would be warmer and nighttime temperatures, slightly
cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely for the TAF period aside from some river
valley fog at KLUK Monday morning. Light southerly flow continues.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 12:00 PM EDT---------------
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