JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 7:25 PM EDT118
FXUS63 KJKL 302325
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some moisture around the outskirts of Tropical Storm Imelda's
circulation could produce a few rain showers in Southeastern
Kentucky into this evening.
- Dry and seasonably warm conditions return on Wednesday and then
persist into early next week.
- Valley fog is likely to develop each night this week in the
deeper river valleys of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
Lingering showers over far southeastern Kentucky are sinking
southward into Southwest Virginia and East Tennessee this
evening. Once that activity moves out, expect dry conditions
through the overnight. Fog formation is likely in the mainstem
river valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
As of the 15Z surface analysis, the map is relatively quiet, with
the majority of significant activity centered around the two
offshore hurricanes. A dry cold front is currently oriented from the
mid-Atlantic westward to the northern Plains. Locally, conditions
are quiet as the forecast area is situated between surface high
pressure centered over northern Missouri and the aforementioned
tropical activity. However, high-level cirrus clouds associated with
the two hurricanes are streaming overhead.
Throughout the remainder of the day and extending through much of
the forecast period, the surface high-pressure system will shift
eastward and become the dominant synoptic feature, leading to
predominantly dry conditions. Despite this, sufficient upper-level
forcing and instability remain to support isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of far southeastern
Kentucky. As the forcing mechanisms shift eastward and diurnal
heating wanes, these showers and storms are expected to dissipate,
leading to a quiet overnight period.
Maximum temperatures today and Wednesday are forecast to reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper-level northerly flow will advect drier
air into the region, resulting in lower dew points, which represents
the most significant deviation from the NBM throughout the forecast
window. With decreasing cloud cover expected later this evening,
clearing skies overnight will allow for effective radiational
cooling, increasing the potential for localized dense fog formation
within river valleys both tonight and tomorrow night. Overnight
minimum temperatures are expected to fall into the low to upper
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough
extending into the Southeast Conus and portions of the Gulf while
an upper level ridge is progged to be in place across the OH and
TN Valleys and into the Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes, and Mid
Atlantic States. A shortwave trough is expected to extend from
the Upper MS Valley toward the Ozarks while another upper ridge
should be centered over NM and extend into Parts of the Southern
Plains as well as Southern Rockies to Central Plains. Further
west, the axis of an upper level trough should extend south west
of the west coast of the COnus from an upper low nearing the BC
coast and the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the period
should begin with a sfc high centered over Quebec/St Lawrence
Valley and extending southwest toward the mid MS Valley and down
the eastern seaboard while weak inverted troughing should extend
from LA and into the Commonwealth.
From Thursday to Friday night, upper level ridging per the
consensus of guidance should become centered form the OH Valley
to the mid Atlantic coast while weak upper troughing remains over
parts of the Southeast to the central and eastern Gulf with a
stronger upper ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern
Plains to mid MS Valley region. Further west, the upper trough
should move into and across portions of the western Conus and
reach the Northern Rockies to Great Basin to AZ by late Friday
night. By late Friday night, a weak upper low may develop over the
Lower MS Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge should become
centered further south over the mid Atlantic states into the
Southern Appalachians. For eastern KY, this scenario will favor
dry and mild weather with temperatures a few degrees above normal.
Valley fog, perhaps areas of fog, especially along rivers, larger
creeks, and area lakes should be a fixture each night through a
couple of hours after sunrise each day.
Saturday to Sunday night, upper level ridging is expected
initially to extend from the Atlantic into VA and Carolinas to OH
Valley while an upper level low is expected in the Lower MS
Valley to western Gulf areas while an upper level trough spreads
from the western Conus into parts of the Central to Northern
Plains. The weak upper level low should meander over the Northern
Gulf to Lower MS Valley vicinity while the axis of upper level
ridging should become centered east of the coast of the
Carolinas. The 12Z ECMWF operational run maintains a stronger
ridge and higher heights into eastern KY as compared to the most
recent GFS operational run while both also bring an upper level
trough into the upper MS Valley that nears the Great Lakes. This
leads to differences in how quickly moisture returns into eastern
KY. More recent GFS would support enough moisture return for a
few showers possibly encroaching the TN border to VA border
counties Sunday night. Either scenario favors above normal
temperatures continuing into the weekend and dry weather for most
of if not all the weekend. Valley fog, especially along rivers,
larger creeks, and area lakes should be a fixture each night
through a couple of hours after sunrise each day. For now
maintained the NBM pops that remained 10 percent or lower even
into Sunday night and generally reflect the ECMWF runs more
closely.
Monday and Tuesday, guidance generally has a series of shortwave
troughs moving from the Plains across the Great Lakes to the St
Lawrence Valley with a corresponding sfc frontal zone that
gradually moves toward the Northeast, across the Great Lakes, and
into the OH Valley. Guidance generally keeps an upper low over
the western Gulf to Lower MS Valley vicinity to begin the week,
but the GFS runs maintain deeper moisture and more moisture return
across eastern KY into Monday compared to the ECMWF. That would
support some shower chances Monday especially over the south
while the ECMWF is drier has more of an increase in moisture and
better chances for showers as the front nears later Monday night
and Tuesday. For now have maintained the isolated to scattered
pops of the NBM from late Monday night into Tuesday which are more
toward the ECMWF end of the guidance. Temperatures are expected
to continue to remain above normal ahead of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF window. There's
cloud cover associated with the tropical activity but as
mentioned, these CIGS will remain VFR. Clouds will decrease
overnight leading to increased river valley fog but fog should
remain out of the 5 main TAFs. Winds will remain light and
variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 7:25 PM EDT---------------
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