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353 FXUS64 KLIX 280420AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... - Dry forecast for much of the period with warm afternoons and comfortable low temperatures each day. - Rain chances slightly increase toward the middle or end of next week. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025The mid and upper level flow will start to weaken today as thebroad scale trough begins to move east of the area allowing for avery modest UL Ridge to set up over the Sabine River. Today willbe a touch warmer than Saturday with highs likely to climb intothe lower 90s across the CWFA. Otherwise, the main story orforecast challenge again will be with the strong surface heating,how much dry air will mix to the surface. With the mixing there isoften lower dewpoints than guidance suggests during the afternoon. Guidance handled this correctly on Saturday, but couldstruggle a bit today with stronger warming at the surface. Going into the new workweek, the upper ridge will continue toreside in rather close proximity. This will likely keep our regiondry through the short term period. The higher heights andthicknesses will also continue to keep our afternoon temperaturesabove average. Overnight temperatures should continue to be comfortable. (Frye)&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025Going into the long term an overall pattern shift will start totake place. TD9 will continue to parallel the US Coast and eventually eject eastward away from the US Coast as an H5 trough begins to dig across the southeast US. The upper level pattern will transition Wednesday and going into the rest of the workweek.A fairly robust upper level low develops over the Deep South and spreads west into next weekend. With ridging over the Cornbelt, aRex Block will eventually develop. A surface front is forecast tomove through the region mid to late week as TD9 pushes east. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The front is forecast to stall right along the coast. As the upperlevel low settles into the region this pattern is usually supportive of storms containing at least some small hail. Otherwise, temperatures will be held down below average given the lower heights as well as rain/clouds around. (Frye)&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle. Surface winds willremain light...generally 10 knots or less and mostly northerly orvariable. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025Offshore flow will continue through the weekend but winds will remain on the lighter side for the most part. Winds will temporarily increase the next two nights over MS Sound and along the waters just off the SELA coast, mainly after midnight and through mid morning before slacking back off during the day. This northerly flow is expected to continue through much of the forecast. Convection chances are low but not zero starting early to midweek next week. A cold front will move into our region by Thursday increasing winds and seas. Cautionary headlines will likely be required Thursday through the end of the forecast period. (Frye)&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 86 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 88 63 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 88 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 89 72 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 89 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 89 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
