JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 2:20 PM EDT969
FXUS63 KJKL 271820
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
220 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers or storms are possible today, mainly for areas
near the Virginia border.
- Drier weather and more sunshine is forecast for Sunday.
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could combine with an upper low
to bring a few showers or storms to east KY next week. However,
confidence is low on the timing and impacts, if any.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Showers/thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain near
the VA border, with development trying to take off a bit further
northwest. This is in line with the forecast, and no substantive
changes were made.
UPDATE Issued at 1138 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Late morning obs are blended into the forecast, with the increase
in the POP delayed slightly for today.
UPDATE Issued at 751 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
A few very isolated showers have moved across parts of the Big
Sandy region, Harlan County, and Knott County over the past hour
or two with more substantial convection in northeast TN, SW VA,
and the WV coalfields. Some pop adjustments were made based on
radar trends with additional adjustments based on observation and
satellite trends. Where fog exists it should lift and dissipate
over the next couple of hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered near Bermuda
while an upper trough extended from the OH Valley to the eastern
Gulf. An upper low moving through this trough was passing south of
eastern KY while a frontal zone extended from the Atlantic into
the Carolinas to the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, Potential TC 9 was
in the vicinity of Hispaniola/eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. A
very spotty showers have developed overnight in the Big Sandy
region and southeast of JKL. There has been slightly better
coverage of showers just to the east in WV. The low and mid level
clouds have been more prevalent across the east and southeastern
portions of the area and where these low and mid level clouds have
thinned or cleared, valley fog has developed and been evident on
satellite imagery overnight. In northern and western portions of
the area where skies have remained clearer, temperatures have
dropped off into the 50s while 60s were common with some upper 50s
in valleys. The fog has been dense in some spots as well.
Today, fog should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours
past sunrise. Otherwise, as the upper low moves into the Southern
Appalachians and the axis of the 500 mb trough approaches,
isolated to scattered showers are anticipated generally east of a
line from Sandy Hook to Jackson to London to Monticello. The
chances for showers and any storms appear greatest nearer to the
VA border. Temperatures should generally peak in the upper 70s to
low 80s.
Tonight, the axis of the upper low/trough should move to the east
and southeast of eastern KY with a trend of rising heights at 500
mb. Sfc high pressure will also build into the region tonight.
This should result in decreasing clouds and slackening winds and
likely set the stage for areas of valley fog to develop overnight.
On Sunday, the areas of valley fog should light and dissipate
within a couple of hours past sunrise. Otherwise, a continued
trend of rising heights should occur as an upper ridge becomes
centered not far from Chicago while sfc high pressure remains
across eastern KY. At the same time, upper troughing will linger
across portions of the southeast while Potential TC 9 is expected
to move across portions of the Bahamas and become a tropical
storm. Drier and milder weather is expected areawide to end the
weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 537 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper ridge extending from
the mid Atlantic States to the Southern Great Lakes to eastern TX
and the western Gulf. To the southeast, a weak upper low is
expected to be over the Carolinas/GA vicinity while Potential TC
9 is expected to be moving across the Bahamas vicinity. The upper
level ridge is expected to remain centered northwest of eastern KY
through midweek while guidance varies with an upper low/troughing
over the Southeast as well as the strength and timing of TC nine
as it works gradually north northwest nearer to the coast of the
Carolinas. These differences influence the degree/depth of
moisture as well as timing that may moves across the crest of the
Appalachians and toward eastern KY and adjacent areas of WV and
TN. Guidance is consistent in that it keeps the more significant
precipitation southeast of eastern KY.
Overall, the upper level and associated sfc ridging should
dominate Sunday night with generally the southeastern locations
perhaps experiencing some convection at times from Monday to
Wednesday nearer to the upper troughing in the southeast and where
a bit more substantial moisture may affect the region. Even at
that, pops from the NBM appeared reasonable given the uncertainty
in the isolated to scattered ranges.
From Wednesday night to Friday, run to run variability remains
with the positioning and strength of a lingering upper trough/low
over the southeast that may become positioned over the Gulf coast
states. The consensus of guidance is that upper level ridging
should build into the Central Conus from Mexico and the Southwest
Conus during this time with some guidance building the ridge into
the OH valley as well by Friday. At the same time, some runs have
eastern KY nearer to the lingering upper level low. NHC tracks
have TC 9 slowing down and weakening near or south and east of the
GA and Carolina coast with the system gradually trending toward
extratropical/merging with a frontal zone. For now, kept the NBM
pops that were generally sub 15 from Thursday to Friday, though if
the solutions with the upper low nearer to the region were to
verify, chances for isolated to scattered convection at times
would linger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Showers/thunderstorms have developed near the VA border, with
some additional development trying to occur a bit further
northwest in southeast KY. This activity should peak late this
afternoon. It will bring isolated IFR or worse conditions, but is
not expected to affect TAF sites.
Once the precip dies out, VFR conditions carry into the evening.
However, fog will develop in valleys during the night and bring
localized VLIFR conditions. Once again, the sub-VFR conditions are
likely to evade TAF sites. The fog will dissipate on Sunday
morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 2:20 PM EDT---------------
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