Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1134 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY654
AWUS01 KWNH 250716
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251300-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern KY/WV...southern
OH...southwestern PA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 250715Z - 251300Z
Summary...Localized hourly 1-2" rainfall expected to result in
additional 2-4" totals, in the vicinity of recent localized 1-3"
rainfall over the past few hours. Isolated to scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely.
Discussion...Showers with embedded thunderstorms have continued in
the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front draped from southwest to
northeast across the OH Valley. A deepening (but weak) wave of low
pressure along the front is approaching an area of recent
localized training (1-2" estimated hourly totals per MRMS) near
the far eastern OH/KY border, fueled by a trailing mid- to
upper-level shortwave/PV anomaly (evident via GOES-East water
vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis). The leading edge of
moisture transport situated between 300-305K isentropes (~850 mb
isobaric surface) is only just moving into the OH/KY/WV border
region, as the low-level jet nears peak strength at 30-40 kts.
This suggests that embedded hourly 1-2" totals will likely
continue for at least the next several hours, training near recent
1-3" totals in already sensitive hilly to mountainous terrain
(with 3-hr FFGs, Flash Flood Guidance, generally ranging from only
1.0-2.0"). Recent hi-res guidance supports the idea of additional
localized 2-4" totals, suggesting isolated to scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely.
Churchill
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40898023 39507946 38588062 38038300 38158379
38498393 38778366 39178306 39788228
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1134 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY---------------
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