ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 1:36 AM EDT280
FXUS61 KILN 240536
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
136 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and some thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday, with drier conditions favored by Friday through early next
week. Some spotty light shower activity cannot be ruled out in
southern parts of the region Friday and Saturday. A gradual warming
trend is expected once again this weekend into early next week with
increasingly-sunny skies.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A fairly-cohesive band of SHRA with embedded TS will work its way E
through the heart of the local area through daybreak before exiting
by mid morning. Some ISO/SCT activity will linger locally through
early afternoon before additional SHRA/TSRA redevelops and moves
back in from the SW by mid afternoon, particularly near/S of the
I-71 corridor. This will occur as a SW-to-NE boundary becomes
established across the region very close and nearly parallel to I-71
midday and beyond. Continued ascent and convergence along/S of the
boundary will promote some renewed redevelopment SE of I-71 this
afternoon through this evening, with some repeated rounds of rain
possible.
The activity this morning is fairly progressive, but has shown some
tendencies to briefly train, or even anchor, over the same areas
(particularly in EC IN/WC OH where steering-layer flow is
substantially weaker than points further S). With PWs exceeding 175%
of seasonal norms and persistent large-scale ascent due to
moisture/mass convergence on the leading edge of the impinging LLJ,
do think the activity will hold together fairly well as it progresses
through the ILN FA through sunrise. In fact, as the LLJ and
corresponding speed convergence strengthens, SHRA/TSRA should fill-in
a bit toward sunrise. Some pockets of locally heavy rain (>1") are
expected where cells briefly anchor, but flooding potential should
remain fairly limited through the morning hours, especially with
overall antecedent conditions still remaining rather dry. If there is
going to be a more concentrated hydro concern, it would likely focus
this afternoon into tonight if renewed convection continues to train
from SW to NE as the boundary and steering-layer flow become
increasingly parallel. There are uncertainties, however, in how
widespread the SHRA/TSRA is going to be tonight, but it bears
watching if we get 1-2" of rain through late afternoon (which will be
possible in isolated locales) followed by more widespread 1+"
tonight. If a more pronounced flood threat is to develop, it would
likely stretch from N/NE KY into south-central OH, but confidence on
this potential is low.
Temps today will be hampered by cloud and pcpn, with highs ranging
from the lower 70s in WC and central OH to the upper 70s in N/NE KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As mentioned in the near term discussion, there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding the expectations for SHRA/TSRA tonight as
the trof axis tries to slowly pivot through the OH Vly. The guidance
has shown quite a variety of solutions, with some indications for
more pronounced S/W energy on the ern periphery of the longwave trof
translating to the NE through the TN Vly into the OH Vly tonight,
providing a bit more in the way of focused ascent and allowing for
more widespread SHRA/TSRA locally (mainly near/SE of I-71) tonight.
Other solutions, on the other hand, pivot the SW-to-NE LL trof axis
to the SE enough that most of the heaviest pcpn tonight stays across
KY into WV (outside of the ILN FA).
If we see some of the wetter solutions verify for tonight, some
isolated flooding concerns could arise given the expectation for
parts of the area to get over an inch through the daytime prior to
any activity tonight. If there is going to be a more concentrated
hydro concern, it would likely focus tonight across N/NE KY into the
lower Scioto Valley if renewed convection continues to train from SW
to NE as the nearly-stalled front and steering-layer flow become
increasingly parallel. But confidence is too low at this juncture
with pcpn placement, so will continue to mention in the HWO for now
for awareness purposes.
Some cooler air will attempt to filter in from the N/NE tonight in
parts of WC OH and EC IN where temps will dip into the upper 50s.
Further to the SE, however, temps tonight will generally stay in the
lower to mid 60s.
Some ISO/SCT SHRA will still be possible near/SE of I-71 into the
daytime Thursday as the primary trof axis finally swings through,
but latest guidance suggests a trend toward slightly drier conditions
locally, particularly NW of I-71. Temps Thursday top out in the mid
to upper 70s amidst clearing skies from NW to SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mean H5 trough axis will align itself right through our CWA Thursday
night. As the trough continues to propagate eastward, the flow
regime will be altered, ushering in drier air from the northwest.
This will result in a gradual decline in PoPs Thursday night, with
very limited chances for rain on Friday. If any rain were to develop
Friday, would primarily expect precip to remain SE of the I-71
corridor (with little accumulation). Temperatures maintain their
trend of near normals on Friday.
What still remains uncertain this weekend is the potential for a cut-
off low to develop and identifying its exact placement. Previous
global model runs were fairly consistent in keeping this upper low
in the southeastern CONUS. However, latest trends suggest a bit more
of a northward shift. If this cut-off low does indeed form in the
Tennessee/lower Ohio Valley, there will likely be increased cloud
coverage and at the very least, a slight chance PoP in our far
east/southeastern counties, particularly around the Scioto Valley.
For the rest of our counties, expect dry conditions with a mix of
sun and clouds. High temps will trend warmer through the weekend,
reaching the 80 degree mark for the majority of our fa by Sunday.
Evolution of the synoptic flow pattern becomes even murkier for the
next work week. The cut-off low could open back into a wave,
resulting in more widespread rain chances come Monday. Additionally,
there could be some interaction with one of the tropical waves out
in the Atlantic, which is projected to become a tropical storm and
push closer towards the Atlantic coast. Will have to monitor the
evolution of these features to gain confidence in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread SHRA/TSRA will overspread the terminals through the first
part of the TAF period, leading to brief MVFR/IFR VSBY in the heavier
pockets of pcpn, with CIGs also lowering to MVFR (or briefly IFR)
toward 12z as well. The heaviest activity should focus near
KILN/KCVG/KLUK, with lighter rates expected further N for
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. The pcpn will become more ISO in nature by 15z, but
additional bands of SHRA/TSRA will likely move back in from the SW
by/past 18z, impacting mainly KCVG/KLUK/KILN once again with brief
reductions in VSBY (as well as wind speed/direction) through late
afternoon.
VFR CIGs will go MVFR, with even some brief IFR CIGs possible
between 12z-15z. MVFR CIGs will likely linger a bit through the
daytime, especially with several rounds of convection expected
through the TAF period. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding
potential of additional SHRA/TSRA tonight to impact the local
terminals. Maintenance of a SW-to-NE corridor of SHRA/TSRA may focus
just S of the local sites tonight, which would keep the local sites
primarily dry after 00z. But confidence in this solution is rather
low.
Any VFR CIGs this evening will likely go back to MVFR toward/beyond
the end of the period. Light/VRB winds will go more out of the SW
for srn sites this afternoon and more out of the NE for nrn sites by
late in the day as the front bisects the local area. Light winds at
10kts or less should go out of the NE for all local sites past 00z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY are likely into early Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 1:36 AM EDT---------------
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