ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 2:59 PM EDT771
FXUS61 KILN 271859
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the
forecast dry. Warmer temperatures arrive on Friday and into
Saturday, with additional rounds of showers and storms on
Saturday with an approaching system. Drier weather returns for
the end of the weekend and start of the next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure overspreading the Great Lakes region will be the
primary driver of our weather pattern today. Northerly flow
across the region will usher in relatively drier air, leading to
a slight reduction in humidity/dewpoint values. Cu has developed
for our entire CWA, with the best coverage along/NW of I-71.
These clouds will burn off with the loss of diurnal heating.
Overnight, mostly clear skies will lead to favorable radiative
cooling conditions. Fog will be less favorable given the larger
dewpoint depressions, so have not included a mention yet. Lows
will dive into the middle 50s to near 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to push eastward. By the morning of Friday
flow will be more southeasterly, becoming southerly by the
afternoon. This will subsequently push more warm and moist air into
the area, with dewpoints in the upper 50s being advected alongside
air temperatures in the upper 80s. South of the Ohio River, these
values may be slightly higher. More partly cloudy conditions may be
observed throughout the day as a result.
Overnight Friday, an upper-to-mid-level disturbance will push
further into the upper Midwest, increasing cloud cover as the night
continues. This system will likely spur the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours of Saturday. Severe
impacts from this broken line of convection are minimal, though
marginal amounts of instability and shear could develop an isolated
strong storm.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will shift east across the region
Saturday into Saturday with an associated cold front dropping
southeast across the mid and upper Ohio Valley later Saturday night
into Sunday morning. In developing southwest flow ahead of this,
temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s
with surface dewpoints nudging up into the low to mid 70s. This
should allow for decent destabilization through the day on Saturday,
although there is a little bit of uncertainty as to how some
potential lingering morning convection may affect this. As the
better forcing moves in through the afternoon, expect showers and
thunderstorms to become more widespread from northwest to southeast
across our area through the day. Assuming we are able to destabilize
enough, deep layer shear profiles would be supportive of some severe
storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Damaging wind would
be the main threat, although it would be tough to rule out an
isolated tornado as low level shear will also be increasing through
the afternoon/evening. The combination of temps and dewpoints will
also lead to some heat indices up to around 100 degrees or so
Saturday afternoon, especially across our southern areas.
Pcpn will taper off from the northwest through Saturday night with
drier air moving in behind the front through early next week. Highs
on Sunday will range from the upper 70s northwest to the upper 80s
in the southeast, while highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s across the entire area. More summer-like temperatures will
return through mid week as upper level ridging builds across the
southeast US. Some mid level energy moving over the ridge will lead
to thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period
with the exception of KLUK. River valley fog is possible tonight
which could lead to minor visibility reductions at KLUK. As the
high pressure shifts east low level and mid level clouds will
remain sparse. The winds will shift from northerly to easterly
throughout the evening, then transition to southerly winds
throughout the night time hours.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday
night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Zinnbaur/Slabaugh
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Slabaugh
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 2:59 PM EDT---------------
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