CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 1:40 PM EDT761
FXUS61 KCLE 231740
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
140 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle toward the Ohio Valley today as a weak area
of low pressure departs to the east. This front will lift back north
as a warm front Wednesday as another low pressure system approaches
from the Mid Mississippi Valley. This low will lift into Ontario by
Thursday, dragging a cold front through the region. High pressure
will build in Friday before another cold front approaches
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The fog in Northwest Ohio is lifting into low stratus and the
low visibility in the region is dissipating. Therefore, have
cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory for the region and just have
another hour or two of patchy fog in the forecast.
Previous Discussion...
Well, most of the area received badly needed rainfall over the
past 12 hours thanks to a mid/upper shortwave and associated
surface low traversing a weak cold frontal boundary. This
shortwave/low and associated synoptic support will continue to
lift toward the eastern Great Lakes this morning, with the cold
front gradually settling southward in its wake toward the Ohio
Valley through the day. One more area of showers that is
currently lifting across NE Ohio should mainly be confined to NW
PA by 12Z, with lingering showers slowly becoming more confined
to the south and east of the CWA this afternoon as drier air and
weak ridging build into the region. The latest NBM POPS looked
very reasonable for today, so did not deviate from them which
yields likely to categorical POPS in NE Ohio and NW PA early
this morning decreasing to slight chance to chance this
afternoon. Most of the region will stay dry this afternoon.
Besides the lingering rain this morning, fog will be an issue.
Dense fog with visibilities down to one half to one quarter mile
has already broken out in NW Ohio where skies have sufficiently
clear, and given the saturated low-levels, small temp/Td
depressions, and light winds, this fog will continue to expand
east early this morning as the showers end. Issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for NW Ohio into western parts of the Central
Highlands, but could even see areas of dense fog a bit farther
east. This will gradually dissipate as the boundary layer warms
by mid morning. Highs today will range from the low/mid 70s in
NE Ohio and NW PA to the upper 70s to around 80 in NW Ohio.
Tonight and Wednesday, a second mid/upper closed low rotating
out of the Rockies through the southern Plains will begin to
phase with the old mid/upper closed low in the northern Great
Lakes. This will eventually result in a broad mid/upper trough
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys by
Thursday. In response to this phasing, jet coupling between a
70+ knot upper jet over Lower Michigan and a near 100 knot upper
jet over Missouri will support a deepening surface low lifting
from Missouri tonight through northern Ohio late Wednesday.
Deepening warm air advection will lift the old frontal boundary
back northward as a warm front late tonight and Wednesday out
ahead of the deepening low, with warm/moist advection and
isentropic ascent leading to widespread rain lifting across the
region Wednesday. Enough instability will also be advected into
the area for embedded convection, so maintained thunder for the
afternoon. Have POPS gradually increasing late tonight,
becoming likely to categorical in NW and north central Ohio by
late Wednesday morning and likely to categorical in most areas
in the afternoon, so another soaking rain is likely in most
areas. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to low 60s,
with highs Wednesday limited to the low to mid 70s given the
increasing rainfall coverage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The deepening surface low will continue northward across Lake
Erie Wednesday night and Ontario Province Thursday. There will
be a dry slot in the warm sector Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night before some showers and thunder fill back in
along the trailing cold front Thursday, but the duration of the
dry slot is uncertain due to uncertainty on the exact track of
the surface low. Tracks from the latest NAM and RAP suggest that
the axis of heaviest, most persistent rainfall associated with
the mid-level deformation zone to the west of the low track may
be in Indiana and NW Ohio, but ensemble guidance, including
early looks at the HREF probability-matched mean, paint the
greatest swath of QPF across central and SE Ohio. This will
ultimately determine how much rain occurs Wednesday into
Thursday, so leaned on WPC QPF at this time which suggests
generally 0.50 to 0.75 inches in NW Ohio and 0.75 to 1 inch
across much of NE Ohio and NW PA, with a swath of 1 to 1.50 inch
amounts from the Central Highlands area through interior NE
Ohio. These amounts and the axis of the highest amounts may
shift west or east and higher or lower over the next couple of
cycles as guidance comes into better agreement. Model guidance
probabilities of 24 hour rainfall greater than 0.5 inch by
Thursday morning range from around 30% in NW Ohio to around 50%
near U.S. 30 which helps to highlight the uncertainty at this
time.
Drier air will gradually work into the area behind the cold
front Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, but maintained
slight chance to chance POPS given the broad mid/upper trough
axis overhead and the cold frontal progression slowing just east
of the region. By Friday and Friday night, high pressure will
attempt to build in from the Upper Midwest. Kept NBM POPS
through Friday night given uncertainty with how fast the
lingering trough and front can drift away, but would expect this
period to eventually trend completely dry.
Highs will generally range from the low to mid 70s Thursday and
Friday. Lows Wednesday night will range from the upper 50s to
low 60s, cooling into the mid/upper 50s Thursday night and
low/mid 50s Friday night as the drier air gradually works in.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence in the pattern evolution further decreases this weekend
into early next week. A northern stream mid/upper trough will
progress from the Upper Midwest Saturday through the Northeast
U.S. Sunday, likely bringing a cold front through the region
late Saturday or Saturday night. However, there are significant
differences among guidance in the depth of the mid/upper trough
and amount of cool air. This may be partially attributed to the
old trough from late in the week becoming cut off over the
Tennessee Valley and Deep South. Made no changes to NBM Saturday
through Monday, with slight chances for showers late Saturday
and Saturday night, mainly in NE Ohio and NW PA, turning dry
everywhere Sunday and Monday. Highs will warm into the mid 70s
to around 80 Saturday, cooling into the low to mid 70s Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Conditions have been improving across the region as the low stratus
begins to dissipate and terminals start to become VFR. The sites
from KCLE down to KMFD and eastward will be slow to improve though
should become VFR by mid afternoon today. Currently precipitation
wise, there is a line of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward
through south-central Michigan that have been gradually weakening
over the past couple of hours and should not impact conditions at
KTOL, though can't rule out a stray shower. Additionally, there are
scattered showers across east central Ohio that will clear out and
move into Pennsylvania within the next hour or two.
Conditions are expected to be VFR until early tomorrow morning
as the next low pressure system move in from the west. There may
be some MVFR/IFR visibility with patchy fog across eastern Ohio
early morning tomorrow through mid morning with KYNG expected
to drop to IFR. Confidence is low in how far west the fog will
reach, so opted to keep KCAK at MVFR for tomorrow morning.
Showers will begin over the western terminals around 12-13Z and
bring non-VFR conditions.
Winds will be generally out of the west to northwest today and
light. Overnight winds will become light and variable before
becoming east to southeast at around 5 knots.
Outlook...Widespread non-VFR conditions are expected Wednesday with
rain showers. Non-VFR conditions possible through Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie will be light this evening through the
overnight but predominately out of the west at less than 10 knots.
Low pressure will be moving south of the lake throughout the day
tomorrow and winds will shift to be out of the east-southeast and
increase to around 10 knots. The low will then move northeast over
the lake and winds will shift to be out of the northwest and
increase behind the low to 10 to 15 knots by Thursday morning.
Guidance is still mixed on the strength of the low pressure system
as it traverses the region. Some models have a stronger pressure
gradient with the low and winds increasing to 20 knots. Will need to
monitor this time frame in future forecasts. West to northwesterly
flow is expected across the lake through Saturday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 1:40 PM EDT---------------
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