MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 7:01 AM CDT ...New Aviation...550
FXUS64 KMOB 221201
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A subtle shortwave trough transits the area this afternoon,
allowing for an isolated coverage of showers and storms this
afternoon into early evening. In the wake of this feature, the
region returns to a dry forecast as we go into Tuesday. Afternoon
temperatures remain well above normal today and Tuesday, with
highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's. Overnight lows will
remain in the middle 60's over the interior with middle to upper
60's nearer the coast through Tuesday night.
A transient shortwave will push across the forecast area
Wednesday, allowing for isolated to locally scattered showers and
storms to develop once again. Best coverage will be across the
western half of the forecast area where better forcing will exist.
Another more potent upper trough will pivot across the forecast
area as we head into Thursday and Thursday night, with a cold
front expected to move through the area sometime Thursday night
into early Friday morning. The trough amplifies Thursday taking on
a neutral tilt by Thursday night. This will allow for our best
chance at showers and thunderstorms so far this month Thursday
into Thursday night, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected. An overlap of around 30 knots of deep
layer shear, MLCAPE values around 1,000j/kg, and adequate forcing
Thursday into early Thursday evening may help to set the stage for
a low end threat of severe weather. Confidence remains low at
this time given differences in how forecast guidance is handling
the troughs evolution and magnitude of instability, however a low
end threat for strong to damaging wind gusts may exist for
portions of the forecast area Thursday into early Thursday
evening. Afternoon highs Wednesday top out in the lower to middle
90's, with much cooler temperatures Thursday in the lower to
middle 80's owing to ample cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm
coverage. Lows Wednesday night only fall into the upper 60's over
the interior and lower to middle 70's nearer the coast.
A cold front passes through the area Thursday night into Friday
and the aforementioned upper trough either moves east of the
forecast area into the Mid-Atlantic states or becomes a cutoff
low. Either way, it will move far enough east to put our area
underneath northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. This will usher
in drier air to round out the week into the weekend. Isolated to
scattered showers may linger mostly east of the I-65 corridor
Friday before the forecast returns to being dry as we head into
the weekend. Afternoon highs will top out in the middle to upper
80's Friday, with upper 80's and lower 90's returning for the
weekend. Overnight lows will be noticeably cooler in the lower to
middle 60's each night in the wake of the front. A few spots over
the interior may even see some upper 50's for lows any given
night. A Low risk of rip currents remains in place for our Alabama
and Florida Panhandle beaches through Wednesday, becoming a
Moderate risk Thursday for the Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A mix of VFR to MVFR flight category prevails across the region
with some very light patchy ground fog this morning. VFR
conditions should return this morning and persist throughout the
day outside of temporary flight category reductions underneath
isolated showers or storms. Winds remain generally light and
variable becoming southeasterly to southerly at 5 to 10 knots
during the afternoon. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails
through Tuesday, becoming southerly to southwesterly for Wednesday
and Thursday. Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow becomes
established Friday and into the weekend in the wake of a cold
front. No other impacts are anticipated other than higher winds
and seas near storms. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 91 69 91 69 91 72 86 67 / 20 0 10 0 30 50 80 40
Pensacola 88 72 89 72 89 76 87 71 / 20 0 0 0 10 30 80 60
Destin 88 73 88 74 87 76 86 72 / 10 0 0 0 10 20 70 70
Evergreen 94 65 96 66 95 70 87 66 / 20 0 0 0 10 40 70 50
Waynesboro 91 66 93 68 92 69 82 64 / 20 10 0 0 40 60 60 20
Camden 92 66 93 68 92 70 82 66 / 10 10 0 0 20 50 70 40
Crestview 93 66 94 66 92 70 87 67 / 20 0 0 0 10 20 70 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 7:01 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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