[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 19:46z for portions of PAH

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 19:46z for portions of PAH

796 
WUUS01 KWNS 221948
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025

VALID TIME 222000Z - 231200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   40439637 40249723 40269774 40549835 41029836 41699828
       42369743 42669656 42619518 41819463 40939532 40439637
0.02   36080003 36810100 37620199 38610192 38970115 38789979
       37429596 37049507 36699494 36279510 36059556 35879596
       35729714 35729864 36080003
0.02   43209012 43139103 43109126 43359165 43759183 43879152
       43949080 43929002 43708990 43209012
0.05   37849799 37349637 36839537 36669530 36499538 36339549
       36079628 36019754 36369844 36659911 37199942 37629926
       37849799
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   38960295 40720201 41230180 42240314 43320277 43500186
       42590020 42339940 42329857 42889723 43979385 44199178
       43718710 43148728 42568848 41789140 41289266 40579337
       38939434 36399566 35749649 35469750 35509869 36010014
       36620144 37140204 38180277 38960295
0.15   38480183 38830111 38769979 38059835 37309691 36949692
       36579751 36499832 36559919 36750027 37000115 37500173
       38480183
0.15   40269475 39949496 39879562 40099725 40739783 41499781
       42189709 42649632 43199482 43479376 43509278 43439159
       43059123 42629125 42309223 42139335 41769409 40269475
SIGN   42009727 41939648 41499583 40769562 40229586 39999660
       40129725 40739780 41489780 42009727
SIGN   36579923 36729997 37020010 37280006 37819962 37629758
       37269737 36879734 36579751 36519829 36579923
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   38379413 37229377 36509309 35609159 35259124 34919109
       34539114 34179134 33929199 33719299 33159489 33019738
       33999896 34490004 35570110 37110242 38220310 39000317
       40430216 41230180 42240314 43320277 43500186 42600021
       42339940 42329857 42899720 43989382 44209183 43718709
       43138730 42578846 41799137 41299265 40589334 39609388
       38379413
0.05   34231055 35350952 35830776 35840586 35590425 35040329
       34310330 33780359 33230451 33060588 33040715 33490941
       33771029 34231055
0.05   43957777 42457861 40657948 38878076 35908348 34928497
       34568651 34818771 35708815 36008823 36678824 38118764
       39058516 40178349 42648049
0.15   38480183 38840111 38749978 37439599 36979557 36589555
       36229573 36069584 35799632 35739711 35729864 36069991
       36760087 37500173 38480183
0.15   40089726 40749783 41499780 42199708 42599621 42499526
       42099453 41599417 40259475 39959495 39879562 40089726
0.15   38548525 40128310 40968198 41118150 40718130 40188127
       39448142 38628200 37418363 36718457 36668532 36818586
       37268594 38548525
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   38548525 40968198 41118150 40718130 40188127 39448142
       38628200 36718457 36668532 36818586 37268594 38548525
SLGT   41499781 42199708 42649632 43199482 43479376 43509278
       43439159 43059123 42629125 42309223 42139335 41769409
       40259475 39949496 39879562 40089726 40739783 41499781
SLGT   38840111 38769979 37439599 37089557 36669548 36339562
       35959587 35829615 35739711 35729864 36069991 37500173
       38480183 38840111
MRGL   35350952 35830776 35840586 35590425 35040329 34310330
       33780359 33230451 33060588 33040715 33490941 33771029
       34231055 35350952
MRGL   40400218 41230180 42240314 43320277 43500186 42600021
       42339940 42329857 42889723 43989382 44209183 43718709
       43148728 42568848 41789139 41289266 40589334 39609388
       38379413 37229377 36509309 35609159 35259124 34919109
       34539114 34179134 33929199 33719299 33159489 33019738
       33999896 34490004 35570110 37110242 38220310 39000317
       40400218
MRGL   43957777 42457861 40657948 38878076 35908348 34928497
       34568651 34818771 35708815 36008823 36678824 38118764
       39058516 40178349 42198079 42798090
TSTM   28758359 30798384 31898259 33077857 99999999 42938201
       42508403 42198487 41428646 40629019 39829267 38969305
       38259257 38079109 38568761 40188405 42118203 99999999
       46527093 45017160 42857478 40937683 36498051 35408191
       34258490 33538587 32378660 29718669 99999999 25559798
       26689847 29909857 30279867 30829939 31369976 32139992
       32549998 33199993 33700019 33990059 33970115 33850161
       33010198 32430310 32370420 31850549 30850626 99999999
       31851707 32861681 33271631 33381547 33711507 34001494
       35511327 36960958 37320985 37351134 37661225 39251328
       40171383 40991382 42211315 43421349 44271264 45300863
       45250714 43130570 43810465 45740311 45950249 45640201
       44360159 43649862 44609363 44549276 44559153 44359045
       44338966 44308888 44428853 44788843 45168827 45528821
       45738868 45868953 46129031 46719050 49288740

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
SDF 30 W CAK 15 NNW CAK 15 SSE CAK 35 W HLG PKB 30 NW CRW 35 SW LOZ
50 NNW CSV 35 ESE BWG 35 NE BWG 35 NE SDF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
OLU 25 NE OFK 15 N SUX 15 E SPW 30 NW MCW 30 SSW RST 35 SSW LSE 50
NNW DBQ 30 WNW DBQ 20 SSE ALO 45 NNE DSM 25 NW DSM 35 NNE STJ 10 N
STJ 15 S FNB 30 WSW BIE 30 ESE GRI 25 W OLU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
GLD 45 S HLC 30 WSW CNU 35 NE BVO 30 ESE BVO 15 ENE TUL 15 S TUL 30
SSW TUL 15 W CQB 40 NE CSM 65 NW CSM 35 NNE EHA 55 ENE LAA 50 SE
GLD.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
GUP 45 N GNT 20 NE SAF 45 NW TCC 20 ESE TCC CVS 45 SSW CVS ROW 20 NE
ALM 15 SSE TCS 45 NNE SAD 40 SSW SOW 30 W SOW 45 WSW GUP.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
IML 50 N IML 20 NW AIA 40 NNE CDR 40 SSW PHP 10 W ANW 35 ESE ANW 10
SSE ONL 10 ESE YKN 15 SSE MKT 35 NW LSE 40 SE MTW 35 ENE MKE 30 E
JVL 20 ESE CID 15 NW OTM 30 E LWD 20 SW CDJ 40 SW SZL 20 W SGF 15
NNE HRO 10 SSE BVX 40 SE BVX 65 W MEM 50 ENE PBF 35 E PBF 20 SSW PBF
35 NNW ELD 45 SE PRX 15 N FTW 25 W SPS 15 ENE CDS 20 ESE BGD 15 SE
SPD 25 WNW LAA 35 SE LIC 30 WSW IML.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
ROC 35 S BUF 25 N LBE 50 SE PKB 30 E TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 ESE HSV MSL
45 E MKL 50 NE MKL 40 SE PAH 10 NW EVV 40 W LUK 35 WNW CMH 30 WNW
ERI 60 NW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW CTY 20 S MGR
25 SSW VDI 45 SSE CRE ...CONT... 50 ENE MTC 25 NW ARB 20 WSW JXN 20
SSW SBN 25 W PIA 20 SSW IRK 30 ENE SZL 35 SW JEF 35 E VIH 35 N EVV
20 NNE DAY 50 NNW CLE ...CONT... 130 NNE EFK 30 ENE EFK 35 SE UCA 25
SSE IPT 40 NW GSO 35 N SPA 15 ESE RMG ANB 15 WNW MGM 60 SSE PNS
...CONT... 45 SW BRO 40 NNW MFE 25 NNW SAT 50 NNW SAT 30 NE JCT 45 E
SJT 25 SW ABI 20 WNW ABI 55 NNW ABI 50 S CDS 35 SSW CDS 35 ESE PVW
15 NE LBB 45 SSW LBB 20 SSE HOB CNM 40 W GDP 65 S ELP ...CONT... 60
S SAN 25 ENE SAN 25 SSW TRM 40 N IPL 20 WNW BLH 30 NNW BLH 40 ENE
IGM 45 S 4BL 25 SW 4BL 30 N PGA BCE 40 WSW U24 40 SSE ENV 20 NNE ENV
40 SE BYI 40 E SUN 25 SW MQM 35 S BIL 35 NNW SHR 30 NNW DGW 55 SE
GCC 25 ENE 2WX 15 W Y22 20 SSE Y22 20 N PHP 30 WSW MHE 30 SW MSP 30
SE MSP 20 S EAU 30 NNW VOK 30 S CWA 30 NW OSH 20 WSW GRB 25 NW GRB
45 S IMT 20 SSW IMT 30 WSW IMT 15 N RHI 30 SSW IWD 20 NW IWD 155 NNE
CMX.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 19:46z for portions of PAH

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