LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 6:19 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...290
FXUS64 KLIX 142319
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
619 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
This pattern is enough to make anyone feel like a broken record.
The overall upper pattern will remain persistent with high
pressure dominating the middle part of the country and a long wave
trough extending along the east coast. The upper high will
continue to suppress convection across the local area. Expect to
see near normal lows, warmer than normal highs, and no significant
rain chances. Will mention that similar to yesterday, one or two
isolated showers will be possible in the late afternoon, but
chance of rain at any individual location is very low (less than
5%) and will not be carried in the forecast.
Only real forecast challenge continues to be the tidal situation,
with the spring tide cycle peaking during tonight's high tide.
Probabilistic guidance has finally come into line with what we've
been seeing in observations, and for the most part is no longer
indicating water levels that exceed flood stage. The one
exception is the Port Fourchon gauge where the guidance is still
indicating a larger tide anomaly. Last night's tide peaked at 1 ft
MHHW, which is slightly above the flood stage. Given the lack of
strong or persistent onshore flow and observational trends over
the last several days, this forecast still seems overdone. Expect
to see tide levels similar to last night, maybe an inch or two
higher. Any impact should be very minor and limited to the lowest
lying sections of road, mainly along Hwy 315 south of Houma. That
being said, will once again hold off on issuing a coastal flood
advisory. After tonight's high tide cycle, tides should begin to
decrease by a couple inches each cycle.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Still looking at basically a persistence forecast through midweek
as a closed low develops in the base of the east coast trough and
elongated ridging remains roughly in place across the middle part
of the country. Outside of a stray shower or storm, no significant
weather to speak of with near normal lows and warmer than normal
highs.
Beyond Wednesday the upper pattern will shift as another
trough/low digs into the central CONUS, weakening the high
pressure and shunting it southwestward. This will result in weak
troughing across the local area in the upper levels, but with the
best forcing well north of the local area, we'll still only be
looking at isolated coverage for showers and storms Thursday
through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions continue to prevail. High pressure dominates both
at the surface and aloft. This will continue to lead to rather
light winds with no concerns of LLWS and little to no convection
with mainly just some overnight cirrus. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Benign conditions can be expected across the waters as weak
high pressure remains in control through the first half of the
work week. Winds will be fairly light with generally a easterly
component over the waters. The inner waters, sounds, and tidal
lakes will continue to be influenced by daily fluctuations from
sea/lake breeze to land breeze. Waves and seas will generally be
in the 1-2 ft for nearshore and protected waters with 2-4 ft in
the outer waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 91 68 90 / 0 10 0 10
BTR 70 93 70 93 / 0 10 0 10
ASD 68 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 70 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 66 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DM
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 6:19 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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