LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 6:26 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...157
FXUS64 KLIX 081126
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
CWF has been updated to expand Small Craft Advisory to all coastal
waters, as winds over tidal lakes and sounds, as well as the
western open waters has maintained a sustained 20 knots over the
last couple hours at numerous observation locations. No change to
the end time of the advisory for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Deep troughing across the eastern CONUS will keep the local area
under generally northwest flow aloft. Dry high pressure will
continue to build into the area tonight. The drier air will allow
more efficient radiational cooling, and we should wake up to
temperatures in the low to mid 60s across northern areas and
lower 70s across southern areas. That being said, it could be the
coolest morning since early June in some areas. Monday will feel
amazing, with afternoon temperatures warming into the mid to upper
80s and dewpoints in the 50s.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday (both
lows and highs) and dewpoints will rise back into the lower 70s by
Tuesday afternoon as the center of the surface high lifts
northeastward. Moisture will increase a bit across coastal areas
in response to a weak inverted trough in the northern Gulf. While
most showers and storms will remain over the coastal waters,
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms could move into
coastal areas and will continue to carry a 20-40% chance of
showers and storms generally southeast of a line from Pierre Part
to Franklinton, with higher POPs across lower Plaquemines Parish.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
No substantial changes to the upper pattern are expected through
the work week, with the overall longwave trough remaining roughly
in place across the eastern CONUS and surface high pressure
centered generally northeast of the local area.
There will be some small fluctuations in temperature and dewpoint
throughout the long term, but generally speaking, conditions will
remain fairly consistent with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s,
highs mostly in the low 90s, and no significant rain chances to
speak of. Best rain chances will be across coastal SE LA, but
should remain mostly below 30% each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions across all forecast terminals this morning, and
expect that to remain the case all day, and very likely through
the overnight hours tonight. Only minor concerns will be winds at
KNEW over the next couple hours where 15-20 knot northeast winds
should slowly diminish, and at least some small potential for
isolated SHRA at KMSY beyond sunrise Tuesday, associated with an
inverted trough moving westward across the northern Gulf.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Winds across the coastal waters will remain elevated through mid
day Monday as high pressure continues to build into the area. The
gradient will begin to relax Monday afternoon with winds and waves
responding accordingly. Additional periods of moderate easterly
winds will be possible through the week. An inverted trough moving
through the northern Gulf will result in unsettled weather with
numerous showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The unsettled
weather will continue into Wednesday, though showers and storms
will become more scattered. Beyond Wednesday the pattern should
become more benign with only isolated showers and storms mainly
across the outer waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 63 87 67 / 0 0 10 0
BTR 86 64 90 69 / 0 0 10 0
ASD 87 66 88 68 / 0 0 30 10
MSY 87 73 89 75 / 0 0 30 10
GPT 88 70 88 70 / 0 10 30 10
PQL 88 68 88 68 / 0 10 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-
532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...DM
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 6:26 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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