JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 19, 2:25 PM EDT503
FXUS63 KJKL 191825
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
225 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather looks to persist through at least the first
part of the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances then
increase through the weekend and into the first half of next
week.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through this
weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025
Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough over the Missouri Valley will
weaken/dampen as it moves east-northeast to the Ohio Valley tonight
into Saturday, and then to the Lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-
Atlantic region Sunday morning. Another disturbance then approaches
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Sunday
morning.
North to northeasterly surface flow this afternoon will transition
to a weak warm advection regime later tonight into Saturday,
ushering in increased low-level moisture and instability by Saturday
afternoon. The weakening disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley
and increased low-level moisture and instability will result in
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with highest
PoPs along the higher terrain near/along the Virginia border. Most
locations will remain dry but with increased cumulus development
resulting in some increasing in shading and thus slightly lower
high temperatures compared to this afternoon.
Models suggest a milder night Saturday night than for tonight given
a likely low-level jet developing overnight ahead of the next
approaching disturbance to the west. Nevertheless, while most
locations will likely only fall into the 60s Saturday night, would
expect enough clearing for lows in the mid to upper 50s in the
sheltered valleys, particularly east of the escarpment.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast on the overnight shift
were to tweak the temperatures each night to allow for a touch of
terrain based distinction into the first part of next week. The
chance PoPs each afternoon through the new week seem reasonable
and were left unadjusted.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Little change in the extended, with ridging building above the
eastern CONUS ahead of a developing trough in the central Plains.
Under increased upper-level heights, the warmest temperatures over
the next week come Saturday. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low
90s, and overnight low temperatures generally in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Temperatures gradually decrease by 1-2 degrees each day
Sunday through Tuesday, when the next disturbance looks to
encroach on the area.
As the wave in the Plains begins to develop, low-level flow will
become southerly and begin to advect moisture along the western side
of the Cumberland Mountains. Sunday features 10-20% PoPs in the
afternoon hours to reflect the potential for some low-coverage
afternoon pop-up showers, but confidence in occurrence as well as
specifics about timing and location is still too low to warrant
edits to NBM init.
Monday afternoon, PoPs in the 20-30% range reflect another chance of
lower-coverage afternoon showers that may gain some support in the
form of return flow from a mesohigh that gets stuck on the other
side of the Eastern Continental Divide. Rain chances do seem to
have stabilized some for Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread
30-40% chances beginning Tuesday afternoon. The nature of shower
and storm chances Thursday and beyond will depend on the speed and
intensity of the shortwave when it arrives to our area, though
current guidance continues 25-40% PoPs on Thursday and Friday as
well.
Wednesday is when ensemble members go from well-aligned to
significantly divergent, with cluster analysis suggesting several
sources of uncertainty driving the disagreement, most of which can
be summarized as "what happens to the low once it bowls into
western Kentucky". Notably, while the EPS/GFS ensembles and EPS-
AIFS and GraphCast GFS machine learning ensembles do all have
differences between resolution of individual features and details,
all generally agree on a deepening upper low pushing towards the
eastern US by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail along with light winds through the TAF
period, though valley fog will bring localized VLIFR conditions
to the river valleys beginning after ~03z and lasting until around
~13z, and as late as 14z in the Upper Cumberland Valley, before
burning off.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 19, 2:25 PM EDT---------------
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