BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:57 AM EDT335
FXUS61 KBOX 130457
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1257 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and calm conditions overnight with radiation fog likely in low-
lying areas. Warm and partly cloudy Saturday with isolated showers
possible in the afternoon. Not as cool Saturday night, but
radiation fog is possible again. Rain chances return Sunday
with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry
weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average
through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains anchored overhead tonight, leading to another
calm and quiet night. With clearing skies this evening and light
winds overnight, expect strong radiational cooling tonight with lows
dipping into the mid-40s to mid-50s. Dewpoints will be rising
slightly overnight as winds near the coast turn more southerly. With
the cold temps, radiation fog will likely form in low-lying areas
overnight and could become locally dense.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Tomorrow
High pressure moves off to the east tomorrow morning, with a weak
shortwave and warm front moving through the region in the afternoon.
There is enough mid-level moisture and forcing present to support
weak isolated afternoon showers, but capping aloft will likely limit
these showers from growing into heavy showers or thunderstorms.
Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer than Friday, jumping into the
mid to upper 70s. Light southerly flow will allow dewpoints to rise
into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Tomorrow night
Not quite as cool overnight, as lows will be bound by the higher
dewpoints, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Another round of
radiation fog is possible as skies clear after sunset and winds
become light and variable.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday then drying out for
next week.
* Seasonable temperatures continue early, warming a bit by mid week.
Latest guidance trends continued more toward the drier end of the
forecast spectrum. While there is still a risk for some showers, am
thinking coverage remains more isolated and will not amount to very
much where it does rain.
Another large high pressure still looks like it will settle over
southern New England by Monday, and linger through most of next
week. Thus, anticipating continued dry weather with near normal
temperatures for mid September.
It's not until late next week where there is a low chance for
another moisture-starved cold front to try an generate some showers
across our region. Went more with the persistent dry pattern and
kept the mention of showers out of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update:
Through 12Z: High confidence.
VFR for most locations. Patchy fog possible for the interior
terminals after 09z, mainly in the valleys.
Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. S winds 5-10 kts. An isolated shower is possible.
Saturday night: Confidence.
VFR. Winds light and variable.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night through Wednesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Light ENE winds turning S through Saturday. Seas remain 2-3
feet.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Monday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...Belk/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:57 AM EDT----------------
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